More Monday Nite Info

[NFLMINNOWPHD]

BALTIMORE (-5.5) Kansas City
06:05 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-04 - Stats Matchup

Kansas City may be 0-3, but they’re actually not playing that horribly. The Chiefs’ offense certainly isn’t playing as well as they did last season, but their 5.1 yards per play average is better than average considering they’ve faced a schedule that has allowed just 4.7 yppl on defense (including very good defensive teams Denver and Carolina). The defense has been ridiculed, but they’ve allowed a not so bad 5.7 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.5 yppl on offense. Overall, the Chiefs have been a bit better than average from the line of scrimmage when their competition is factored in. Baltimore, meanwhile, has been surprisingly poor in that regard, as they’ve averaged just 4.9 yppl (against teams that allow a combined 5.3 yppl on defense) while giving up 4.8 yppl to teams that average just 4.6 yppl on offense. Those numbers aren’t reliable until each team has played 4 games, but it gives you an indication that their really isn’t much difference between these teams. The rating method I use before week 5 (when my math model kicks in using this year’s stats only) is based on my pre-season evaluation of each team running, passing, defending the run, defending the pass, special teams and turnovers and those ratings are adjusted each week depending on how the stats differ from my expected levels based on that week’s opponent and site. My pre-season ratings have been very accurate and those adjusted ratings favor Baltimore by 5 points in this game, which I consider to be a fair line. There are a ton of situational angles applying to this game and I actually don’t remember so many strong situations going head-to-head in one game. Kansas City applies to an 89-32-6 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s upset loss as a big favorite and they apply to a 91-47-6 ATS road underdog scheduling situation while Baltimore applies to a very negative 20-52 ATS letdown situation that goes against teams that won and covered against division rivals in consecutive weeks. However, KC also applies to a negative 3-20 game 4 situation while the Ravens would apply to a 57-16-2 ATS Monday night angle if they are favored by 5 points or less. Baltimore is also 24-8-1 ATS under coach Brian Billick when facing a losing teams (not including 0-1 teams), including 13-3 ATS at home against such teams. After adding up the value of all of those angles, they favor Kansas City by 1.3 points, which is basically meaningless. I’ll call for a 4 point Baltimore victory and lean slightly with Kansas City – although it looks best to stay away from this game.