Tommy Gold's NHL 2009/2010 2009.10.20 Picks

[TommyGold]

2 plays for today:

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Let‘s go to the West Coast... Now let‘s go to the East Coast... And this is the recent life of the St. Louis Blues team this week. It can be hard especially when the second team is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Even when the Blues are good on the road, losing only one game on OT in 3 games. But this year, the Penguins improved their defense. With that good defense, they are showing that they only need a few shoots to score, winning easily the majority of the games, sitting on a 7-1 record.

I know that St. Louis comes from a great win over the Anaheim Ducks, however they had made a big travel prior to this game. The Penguins had lost one game at home, against the Phoenix Coyotes, their only loss at the moment, and they can‘t compromise another game at home so soon. I see that the edge on this game is on the Penguins. Their roster... well, advantage number one. They are better defenders than the Blues, advantage number two. They can score as much as the Blues, but only need half of the shoots, advantage number three.

The Puck Line is a good bet, the accuracy of the Penguins centers, is one of the best on the NHL. If they are winning only by one goal difference at the end, Pittsburgh is a reliable team to score another goal on an empty net situation. So, even if they only scored one more goal than the Blues during 58 minutes, we can expect another goal at the last minutes to make our PL a winner.



Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames

A week after, Columbus Blue Jackets will face Calgary Flames again. In the first match up of the season Columbus won 2-1 at home. Now, it's their turn to make the trip. Fortunately they had 3 days off, so they could have some rest and make a quiet travel. It's important to them to continue this good start of the season, with only 1 loss in 6 games, against the Sharks in San Jose.

The Flames had 4 days rest, which can be too much time to be out in a season start and that can be treacherous. They had a good beginning with 4 wins in a row, but then they went 1-3. Something appears to be wrong: in 8 games, they won 5, all against canadian opponents. They didn't won one game yet at USA floor.

We will have a match up between two teams, where the advantage in the offensive game or the defensive game is with Columbus, as they can defend much better than Calgary. Moreover, Columbus are playing a intelligent hockey, just taking 6 goals at Sharks, but Shark are Stanley Cup contenders and they have a great first line. In the rest of the games, they usually had allowed only one goal per game.

A week ago Calgary scored first, but they could hold it, and lost 2-1, a result that expressed the truth in the field. Actually, Calgary had some problems this year to hold the lead in the games when they are winning. Who can't remember that game in Chicago (5-1 in the first period, 5-5 in the end of regulation time, loss in OT)? So, i will take here the Blue Jackets, they are smarter in the field, they know this Calgary team and they have the potential to show to this mind weak team, how to win a game.


Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin

[Studplayr]

The only way I,ve bet hockey in the past is on a puck line,moneyline and over and under on the totals.I hate sounding stupid but could you explain what this 3 way (1x2) and also the two different lines +165 and +220 (3,20 are.It does,nt make any sense to me.

Thanks
Stud

[TommyGold]

The only way I,ve bet hockey in the past is on a puck line,moneyline and over and under on the totals.I hate sounding stupid but could you explain what this 3 way (1x2) and also the two different lines +165 and +220 (3,20 are.It does,nt make any sense to me.

Thanks
Stud

Your question doesn't sound stupid at all, "au contraire", it is an intelligent question.


NHL 3 Way lines and European Ice Hockey (Draw line quote) lines are played like in soccer, regulation time only, overtime not included. Since you're only playing RT, regulation time, it is possible to bet the draw. The result after the 3rd period is what you are betting (Win, Lose, or Draw).

NHL 3 way and European Ice Hockey is settled without overtime (60 minutes of play only) for the main quote (Away/Home/Draw/Total). This option does NOT include overtime or a shootout.

Bookmaker (and Diamond (DSI)) offers 3 different types of lines for Hockey: The Canadian Line, 3-Way Option, and Straight Money Lines. Usually 5Dimes also has NHL 3 Way lines.


The Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker and the CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin are exactly the same, the difference was on the odds offered by Bookmaker and bwin. There were several outs in Europe offering for this line +200 and +205 odds, even if their limits were below a nickel.

Therefore, you can conclude that or Bookmaker had the most "real" odds or they had put down a lot of juice on that line.

[TommyGold]

2009.10.19 results:

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker, 5Dimes +175 (2,75) (5-1: WIN)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin (6-3: LOSS)

2009.10.20 finished with a 1-1 and +0,8 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 11-15 (+0,77 units won/26 units risked)

[Studplayr]

Ok Istarting to get a grasp of what you,re, talking about but I,m still a little vague on some points. I bet Calgary to win last nite at -145.If I had bet them to win at either of your otlets I would have to lay approximately 185 at Bookmaker -260 at Bwin?Also how is the tie price determined, is it just a push?
Also what does the (1x2) designate or mean?Why would the odds be so much higher on a three way bet?Is it just because of the payoff in event of a tie? Tanks for clearing this up 4 me.

GL
Stud

[blaugrana]

1 is a home team to win
x is a draw
2 is away team to win


The odds are much higher becouse teams got only 60 min to win, you got less chance to predict winner becouse of the draw which you can predict. lets take yesterday game atlanta @ montreal. i bet montreal to win, but if i would do it in 3 way i would loose, becouse it was 1:1 in regulation time. if you would bet calgary to win in 3 way you would have bigger win becouse they won 6:3 in regulation time.

[TommyGold]

Buffalo Sabres @ Florida Panthers

I know that the Sabres had made a great start, scoring 6 goals against Detroit, and then they defeated the Islanders. This happened after they appeared to struggle in their offensive game. So, everybody thinked: they are a good team. Line makers even favour them. But i can't understand it. Why is Buffalo favourite? Sabres just played one game on the road. Against Nashville, winning by 1-0. That prove anything? NO! Buffalo still has to show that they know how to play on the road. I admit that Sabres is not a team that I enjoy. It's true that they sometimes play well. But as soon as they do it, they play bad as well.

Florida, won their first game in the season, but then they struggled hard. However, in the last games they tried to bounce back. And in the last game, they won 4-2 at home against the Philadelphia Flyers, a hot team. So, on this game i will take Florida and I will risk a 3WAY line. Florida can do pretty things at home, specially against teams like Sabres, teams that are not reliable on their performances. I think that the bookies are wrong, remembering too much 2 straight games where they scored 6 goals. Are they accounting for public perception? Maybe. The truth is that the Sabres are not a good offensive team and in the end of the season the stats will show it. Florida is getting their confidence back and their game is showing up in the last few games.

Playing at home against a team that only visited a "to much easy prey" (another reason to take them as favourites?), if I have to see advantage somewhere, it will be with the home team. After all, if they won 4-2 against Philadelphia, why not an easy win over Sabres, which are coming from a defeat at home?


Pick: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker, FLA 3Way (1X2) +160 (2,60) bet365, Centrebet

FLA ML +105 (2.05) is available on Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Ok Istarting to get a grasp of what you,re, talking about but I,m still a little vague on some points. I bet Calgary to win last nite at -145.If I had bet them to win at either of your otlets I would have to lay approximately 185 at Bookmaker -260 at Bwin?Also how is the tie price determined, is it just a push?
Also what does the (1x2) designate or mean?Why would the odds be so much higher on a three way bet?Is it just because of the payoff in event of a tie? Tanks for clearing this up 4 me.

GL
Stud

1 is a home team to win
x is a draw
2 is away team to win


The odds are much higher becouse teams got only 60 min to win, you got less chance to predict winner becouse of the draw which you can predict. lets take yesterday game atlanta @ montreal. i bet montreal to win, but if i would do it in 3 way i would loose, becouse it was 1:1 in regulation time. if you would bet calgary to win in 3 way you would have bigger win becouse they won 6:3 in regulation time.

Many thanks blaugrana, for your reply!


For today, I've this pick: Buffalo Sabres @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker, FLA 3Way (1X2) +160 (2,60) bet365, Centrebet


If you play the ML, by risking $100 to win $105 on Bookmaker and the Panthers win the game in the regulation time or even in OT/SO, you will end up with a $105 profit. But if you play on the 3Way line, you get higher odds and a better payout, but if the game goes to OT, then you lose the bet, because of the draw, which is priced today on Bookmaker at +300 (4.00) odds.

So, if you believe the game will end with a tie, then you can risk $100 to win $300!!!


If you side with the Sabres, but only on the ML, using the -125 odds offered by Bodog, you risk $100 to win only $80. Or you migth want to lay $120 on The Greek to win $100, but I don't lay to win, I always flat rist my bets, that way my stakes will give me better payouts on the long term.


If you want to play the BUF 3Way +130 (or +140 on Expekt), then you just risk $100 to win $130, but if there is a tie, all bets on BUF 3Way +130 or on FLA 3Way +140 are lost, and all bets placed on the tie +300 are won.


Now, what have we learned from this game just by looking at the 1X2 market on the regulation time? That the oddsmakers on Bookmaker know that there will be a little more action on BUF than on FLA, perhaps accounting for public perception, since only a few people might bet on the tie, and therefore they will the juice on both sides and gives us a "premium" on the tie. But there is only a real "premium" on those +300 odds for the tie, if we have for example 0.33 true odds for it.

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild

Colorado Avalanche after two home wins went on a successful road trip (4-2, 1-1 on SO) that ends now on Xcel Energy Center, were they face the Minnesota Wild, which had a road trip of their won, but not as successful as the one of the Avalanche team, because they lost SU all their last 5 matchs, showing a dismal performance on the defense and a weak offense (an average 2.00 goals scored per game).

Minnesota has only won 1 game, at home against the Anaheim Ducks, by 4-3 on SO, and we don't know much more about them on their home field, because they spent the entire season so far on the road, ending with a 0-6 record. What we've seen so far of the Wild doesn't inspire much trust, we have a team that has the pressure to win, but that will also play on a known and confy environment.

On the other hand, we have a Colorado team that will finish their road trip, having won their last 4 games, with their last win against the Detroit Red Wings on SO giving us some signs that they can be trusted, if they have tonight the same commitment displayed on their last games.

So, I'm going to take my chances and support the road dog on their last game, believing that they have the ability to give 60 minutes of effort, since they have shown having much better qualities so far than this Wild team and for this game I give both teams 50-50, as we can't deny the value of Wild's roster on the other side. Take the Colorado Avalanche ML.

Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +120 (2.20) 5Dimes, The Greek