Tommy Gold's NHL 2009/2010 2009.10.22 Picks

[TommyGold]

Time to bounce back:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens

Today Montreal will try to match 2 straight wins, just the way they opened the season. This game is important as they have to make supporters forget all the 5 losses before last game. Montreal won finally at home on their last game, a 2-1 win in OT. This team is having hard times, because they make an investment for this year and the team is not answering it. They need victories and last one was very important. Today, they have to show everybody that they finally are on the right track.

The Islanders played yesterday at home and have won their first game, after OT. It's true that they are not a bad team, they are young, with talented players. They finally got the win they were seeking since the start of the season. But, I think we can explore a spot in this game. Islanders are talented, are coming from their first victory. Some people can see value here, against Montreal, a team that are unrecognized so far.

However, I think that the experience of Montreal can be a big factor, against a young team. The fact that the Islanders played yesterday, traveling and playing today, isn a important on for us. The only game they played B2B they lost 4-1, and those 2 games were at home. This time it will be to hard for them and playing in Montreal is not easy.

On the other hand, Montreal will face this match very carefully, they will try to control this game by making it slow. In 3 games at home there were 3 easy unders, showing how this team is playing at home. They are not confident yet to make a blowout win and first of all, they have to make sure that they will win this game, with no hard effort.


Picks: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker, Centrebet & Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers will host today the Bruins and a funny thing that I remember, is that this seems to be like their last game, but reversing the "momentum" of the teams. Boston is playing well, Philadelphia is capable of more than they are doing, strugling in too many games.

Tonight Philadelphia, with almost 1 week rest, will face the Bruins to try to return to the victories. They won 3 games in a row and then thy lost 3 straight games. So, this "pause" could make the same efect on the Flyers team. This will be like a new beggining of the season, as Philadelphia this year started well with wins and failed on the last 3 games, however they played well at all those games.

Boston is unrecognized this year. They can't win 2 straight games. They only played 2 games on the road, winning in Dallas and losing in Phoenix. Well I'll take on the fact that they won at Dallas, because the Stars are not a reliable team, they had played poorly so far. They lost against the Coyotes, which is a bad team, but consistent on their efforts in most of the games, unlike Dallas.

Today Emery will be the goaltender against Rask. Philadelphia has a powerful first line and Rask can be a weak spot in a defense that is allowing more than 3 goals per game. On the other hand, Savard will miss the game and as we saw yesterday Boston strugles on their offensive game without him.

I expect a renewed team in Philadelphia. With time to prepare this game, they will try to "restart" their performance on this league with a win. Boston is caught too many times trailing behind their opponents and I can't see the Flyers to waste those opportunities. I only can see an edge on the Flyers, they have a good roster, they are playing well, and they love these games. Against a team with low morale and confidence, with their weakest goaltender, best scorer out and without advantage on PP situations, I just see a scenario where the Flyers will dominate easily this game.

The Philadelphia Flyers (1X2) -110 (1.91) Bookmaker or the Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 -110 (1.91) Diamond (DSI) have odds with little or no value for me to play, so I'll go with the puck line.


Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +185 (2.85) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers

When the Capitals faced strong teams in offense, they didn't let their credits in other hands. They scored as much as they can and a team that have Ovechkin, is not hard to do it. The truth is, I think that Washington enjoy to play against teams that push them, teams that try to score more than them.

Atlanta is one of the most effective teams when we talk about scoring goals. They can score one goal in almost 6 shots. Both teams arrive to this game with 3.5 goals per game. A strong mark. However, Atlanta lowered their stats due to the fact that they spent almost 2 weeks on the road, decreasing their power. In the first 2 games, the only ones at home, they scored 6 goals in both games.

So, I expect here a game where Atlanta will try to start pressing the Capitals, but this team can bounce away that pressure and keep on the scoreboard, even if Atlanta score. Defensively, Atlanta is better than Washington, but the Capitals can easily find spots in Atlanta defense. I confess that this play would be much better if Semin plays, but even without him Washington can find many spaces. It will be a clash between Kovalchuk and Ovechkin to see which one will score the most goals and the public will probably win with that clash, because it promises a lot of goals... Both goaltenders will be just spectators in the game, both teams seem to wish to give to the audience a good show, as they put their worst goaltender in the lineup...


Pick: Over 6.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning

A few days ago, i was sceptic about the Sharks, betting against them when they played against the Capitals in Washington. I was right, but since then they played 2 games and crushed both opponentws, including a 7-3 at New York against the Rangers, one of the hottest teams this season. So, when they face tonight Tampa in the middle of their road trip, they will try to keep the recent "momentum" they acquired. They will give everything they got tonight, as they will face after this game teams better than Tampa.

Tampa is a team well known by their adversaries, because, and I hope no one crucifies me, they are only known by their first live... St Louis, Lecavallier and so on, makes this team reasonable, as they are the players that makes this team one that win games some times. They only won 2 games this year, playing 3 at home. They won because of their offensive, that has been stronger than the other teams, Hurricanes and Panthers. They lost at home against Devils, a team that likes to play forward, and have also good players at front. When they played out, they showed how week they are in defense, taking 7 goals in Ottawa. So, let's face the reality. Tampa will do pretty things specially at home this year, they have few talented players in first line to do so. However, can they do it against Sharks? I can´t believe it.

San Jose is a strong team. No one doubts it. They are strong in defense and at offensive game as well. They have talented players in every lines of their roster, ensuring they will go to every games trying to win. So, this game will only have 3 processes: Tampa attacking, San Jose defending, and then, San Jose attacking... and no one defending. I can't see much more in this game, the Sharks are finally playing their game, with much morale due to a blowout win at MSG, and they will have the edge on the goaltender position, which will probably be Smith for Tampa, a goaltender that is allowing more than 4 goals per game.


Pick: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Rough patch we're riding here.

2009.10.22 results:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker, Centrebet (5-1: WIN)
New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-1: LOSS)
Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +185 (2.85) Bookmaker (4-3: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Over 6.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (4-5: WIN)
San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (5-2: LOSS)

2009.10.22 finished with a 2-3 and -1.14 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 13-23 (-5.37 units lost/36 units risked)