Tommy Gold's NHL 2009/2010 2009.10.24 Picks

[TommyGold]

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators

This season Boston are trying to show us how to bet on them. It's a funny trend, because in a 9 games, they cannot make 2 wins or losses in a row. So, I suspect that there will be many bettors today betting on Boston just because they lost the last one. However, in this world of probabilities they might be wrong. They think that will be much more probable a win for the Bruins because of the trend. However, it's a false thinking. The probabilities are in favor to end this trend and is like a linear equation. If they delay to make 2 in a row the bigger will the probabilities for to that happen. So, after 9 games I think that the probability, only statistically speaking, will be in favou of the Senators, and for those that only bet on sports due to probabilities, these will be bigger today.

In their last game, only 2 days ago in Philadelphia, I saw Boston playing a Little bit. They are playing horrible, they are not anymore that cohesive team that we knew from last year. Boston is losing their games against teams that got the momentum and are playing well. They have individual values, but they are not producing the expected hockey. Savard, the top scorer, will be out and he is one of the few players in the team still showing how to play the game.

Ottawa, despite the last loss against a team that is rising from the dead, is playing well. The Senators are not a team that is afraid of "big team names" and they fight 'till the end on every game. They are also a good team, with talented players that make the difference, specially Alfredsson, who can lead them.

Thus, I think this could be a good clash between a team that is playing poorly, allowing the adversaries to play too much, and a team that is playing well. With the Senators players making the difference instead of the Bruins players, we have an edge on defense and offense on our side, and Ottawa should win this one. However, I prefer to play this on the ML, because I expect some improvement from the Bruins from their last game, however it will not be enough to give them the win. Overall, this is the line offering the best value for me.


Pick: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes, OTT ML -120 (1.83) SBOBET

[TommyGold]

New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens

Today we will have a game where the key for the victory will not be the stats of this season. Montreal has a good roster, however they delayed to show it. After wins on their first 2 games this season, they struggled a lot being defeated 5 times in a row. Fortunately for them when the whistle of disgrace played, they returned to victories and arrive to this game with 2 straight wins.

In the other side, we will have a Rangers team facing their worst moment of this season so far. After starting with a loss, they had 7 straight wins and were one of the hottest teams in the league, playing well and scoring a lot. But... as much as you climb, bigger will be the fall. And Rangers are coming from 2 home defeats, showing big problems on defense.

Both teams are talented and have players that can make the difference. It's true that Montreal has been unrecognized this season, but has appeared on last game. Rangers were playing well, showing everyone their offensive power, and that they can beat everybody.

However for me, the spot to explore is this: Rangers lost their momentum, coming from 2 home losses, where they show mental weakness. A non-strong mental team will always struggle in Montreal. And I think that we will have here a non-confident Rangers.
Montreal is finally starting to show their game. They are a smart team and they can explore this non physical part of the game to win it. They need to continue with their wins and facing a team with a "bad momentum", but second on the Eastern Conference, can be a good boost. So, we cannot pass on this home dog.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker, MON 3Way +170 (2.70) NordicBet

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes - The Capitals are in a good scoring mood and the Islanders have some motivation to score some goals too, they are a young team, they chase their losses, which will be a big mistake for them, allowing the Capitals to score a few more goals.

Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes - The Flyers play at home, against a Florida team which played in Pittsburgh against the title holders, being in the lead up to the 3 minutes before the last whistle, the Panthers gave everything they've got against the Penguins, they are exhausted and therefore, they shouldn't be at their best tonight. Philadelphia is one of those teams that if you allow them to have some room to play, to maneuver inside your lines, they have a very good ability to score, on that matter, Richards and Carter are lethal goalscorers.

Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes - Colorado is playing quite well, they are a solide team and they have shown good gameplans so far. I understand why they are home underdogs, it is a B2B game against the vice-champions, (Colorado is 1-0 with 0 days rest, it is not much to show, but it seems that they aren't that bad yet on this kind of scenario), but Detroit's hockey display is actually very bad and I don't see any value on them right now. On their previous encounter, Colorado went to Detroit and defeated the Red Winds, so why not another win for Colorado tonight?

If you can get CAR ML +130, go ahead, otherwise, I'll pass on them.