Tommy Gold's NHL 2009/2010 2009.10.29 Picks

[TommyGold]

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa will host today the team that gave them the worst loss, 7-1. So, this game will have a "revenge" factor. Tampa Bay lost at Ottawa and now they host them, so this game will be different for sure. Tampa Bay is a "special team". They can be weak, but they can do pretty things at home, as we saw a few days ago when they won 5-2 against the Sharks.

The Senators are playing well making so far a good season. The only losses they have this season, in Regulation Time, were against the Rangers and the Penguins. If Senators plays against a team on the road with the level of Tampa team, I would go with Senators without doubt.

However, this Tampa Bay is a special team at home. They have talented players, but the team doesn't show their maximum potential on the road, they usually only show their talent at home. Therefore I see an opportunity here, Tampa Bay wants revenge for sure, and if they are in that mode at home... they can blowout anyone.


Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers

A week ago, Atlanta wasn't able to stop Washington. Now, they will face them again. The difference for this game, is just one. Kovalchuk. The Trashers star suffered an injury and will miss action for a few weeks. He was the key in this last match up, scoring 2 goals. Now, we will be out, increasing the gap between these two teams.

The Capitals faced some problems, losing 4 in a row, but now they are with 5 straight wins. They've got confidence, and Semin helped to make the difference. Today, they know they can crush Atlanta, a team they beat only by one goal. With the knowlegde about Kovalchuk miss, they will not tolerate a non-winning game.

The Trashers have done a good season so far for them. They are with 0-2 losing record on their last 2 home games, however, it were against the Capitals and the Sharks. They fight every game and try to keep the games close, seeking their opportunities.

The key for this match, will be the injury of Kovalchuk. He was and still is the best player of the Trashers, the one that can help a lot his team to keep games close. With his absence, I think that Atlanta will struggle a lot in next few games, specially against a team with so much offensive power as the Capitals.


Pick: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues

This a B2B game for both teams. St. Louis won easily yesterday at Carolina by 5-2 and they return home today. The Blues have already faced Phoenix on the road and they lost 3-2 on OT. When they won, they do it with a great lead and I think that they want to snap this L-W-L-W record on their last games and Phoenix is the right team for the Blues to score another win.

On the other hand, the Coyotes will end today their road trip and yesterday they only won in the end of the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, with two goals in power play, and that was a tiring game. Like I stated yesterday, this Phoenix team despite having a nice start, they aren't a top team and I expect a flat spot for them on this game, their third straight on the road and I remember that of their last 5 wins, 3 were on OT/SO and I expect that yesterday game will take a toll on them.


Pick: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings

In this match up we have two teams with the same numbers, but in a different order: LA Kings is 4-1 at home, Vancouver is 1-4 away. So, we can get an easy conclusion. The first are good at home so far, the others still have to find how to face road games.

Los Angeles is making an impressive season so far. At home they only lost their first game of the season. Even with that game, they have 5.2 goals scored at home. Impressive for a team that started the season with a label saying "no playoff contenders".

Vancouver lost the last game at home against the Detroit Red Wings, result of an awful third period. In their road games, they usually struggle a lot, allowing 3.40 goals per game, and scoring only 2. Thus this itself gives us almost an average difference of a puck line.

Today Raycroft will start for the Canucks, something that gives me no confidence on their defense. Luong allowed 5 goals against the Red Wings, but was playing pretty well, and those 5 goals were a consequence of a bad team game. Quick will start for the Kings and so far, he has been one of the keys of the success path of his team.

For this game, I can understand why the Kings are a little bit the favorites, since they are on a B2B game. It can be hard, but all their games have been hard, as they are a team to kill. Their home advantage this season seems something big, and the confidence of the team should be enough to face a team with lots of injuries, struggles a lot away, and comes from a bad loss.


Pick: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) The Greek



A believe this game already started (this Daylight Saving Time hiatus is "killing" me), if that is the case, my apologies:

Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers

Now, there is the right moment to take Oilers. There are few reasons to take this one. First of all, we've got here a huge odds value. The home dog is 5-2-0-1 at home. The last game was at home and a defeat after a 2 road trip with no wins. So, they've got to take this game seriously, specially after zero goals scored in the last 2 games. And I believe this team can turn things around. It is not the kind of team to letdown their arms. After the last game loss, they will give their supporters a good game. I think the fact that Khabibulin will be the goaltender, will help the team, as he alternates his performances between bad and good ones. And today, it's a day for a good performance, like we has done so long this season, at home. At home, Edmonton is more powerful at offense, but their advantage is in making difficult to opponents to score.

Detroit is coming from a win, an away win! 5-4 at Vancouver, for a team that is disappointing every one, is a good win. However, this team is not the first good win they've got, but after those wins they usually get back to a poor game. Maybe the fact that they have a old roster, can explain it. They give all they can in one game and need a week to recovery (pretty bad :evil. Yet, the truth is that we can explain this team: every time we believe that they will start their engines and start to play good hockey and win games, they come and prove us that we were wrong. The bigger problem is they can't defend when playing away. Even on their only win on the road on their last game, they allowed 4 goals to Vancouver. To help it, they will put their backup goalie in the nets, Howard. They expect that he will give good luck, however I think this will be a mistake, as this team needs a strong goalie, mentally speaking.


Pick: Edmonton Oilers ML +146 (2.46) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

2009.10.29 results:

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-4: LOSS)
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-2: WIN)
Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (0-2: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +195 (2.95) Bookmaker (1-2: LOSS)

2009.10.29 finished with a 1-3 and -2,09 units lost/4 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 19-35 (-9,46 units lost/54 units risked)