Puckline formula??? please help!!!

[Hookemhornz]

Can anyone explain to me how to figure pucklines? And alternative pucklines as well. I'm doing some extensive backtracking and it is crucial that I figure out how to calculate these. Any help is much appreciated.

[Hookemhornz]

Really??? All the veterans here and nobody know how to figure puckline odds???

[LostNblunteD]

?

[bigwinnner8]

Here's what I got in 10 seconds of research... There is no formula to calculate a puckline. Some shops move the puckline/runline independently from the moneyline if there is significant money on one side of the puckline. For example

Team Alfredson -120 vs Team Charra +100
Team Alfredson -1.5 is +190 (note: all pucklines are roughly a 100 change in the line, -120 to +190 here)

but... If I placed a $100,000,000 wager on Team Alfredson -1.5, the book could move the Team Alfredson puckline to +180 (or whatever) while keeping the moneyline at -120. There is no "formula" for the puckline, it changes with action. Just like a spread. Alternative pucklines are a NHL prop that isn't offered at all books and I know little/nothing about how they work. Never bet one in my life.

[Louie]

Yea, there is no universal formula for calculating puckline or run lines (which are basically the same thing). The reason being is that it's not a sport where you can put a money line value on a single point (or a half point)...It all depends on the game and the teams playing...

For teams that score lots of runs (like the yankees) and are less likely to have a 1-run game; and where players are more likely/willing to lay the -1.5, they'll make the run line payout much lower for the favorite -1.5...

I never thought of puck lines or run lines as sharp plays at all. It's more of a prop/sucker bet, where the house usually uses them to their advantage; by temping the player to lay -1.5 in a sport where games are often decided by 1 run/goal...

For example; You might see something like...

Kansas City +250
NY Yankees -310

and for the run line....

Kansas City +1.5 (+110)
NY Yankees -1.5 (-150)

See the 40 cent differential on the run line payout? That right there tells you it's a prop bet. If the house gets an equal amount of action of each side of the run line, they'll make at least 40 cents on the dollar....

Player A: Bets $1.50 to win $1.00 on the Yankees Run Line (-150)...
Player B: Bets $1.00 to win $1.10 on the Kansas City Run Line (+110)...

The house makes
They make 40 cents profit if the Yankees win.
They make 50 cents profit if the Royals win

Anyway you look at it, laying that kind of lumber on the Yankees (no matter who is pitching) is not a wise bet...At the same time, the extra 1.5 runs doesn't justify the reduction in the payout if you're taking the royals.

Normally, for a -150 favorite you'll see +135 for the underdog (at a decent shop) when not playing pucklines/runlines.

[Hookemhornz]

Thanks for responding guys.

[bigwinnner8]

Thanks Louie, your answer was better than mine.

[Hookemhornz]

Lol. Both were helpful. I'm just going to try and find an avg line for the puckline. I'm really just looking for accurate figures for when I backtest. I want to have accurate figures when I post past years results.