NHL Handicapping article

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HANDICAPPING HOCKEY... written October 18th, 2000 by Her Hockeymeister
10.18.00

Suppose Calgary visits Chicago for a regular season game. The Hawks are -.5 -$1.50; if they met in a playing game at Chicago, the Hawks would be PICK -$1.90. Playoff games can’t end tied, so teams can’t be favored by half a goal. If half a goal is worth 40 cents, a goal is worth 80 cents. (not everyone game works out to be exactly 80 cents, but close to it.)

The value of half a goal varies according to the total of the game. If a totals is an unlikely 6.5 or higher, quantify the half goal as 30 cents; if the total is 6.0, half a goal is 35 cents; if the total is 5.5, the half goal is worth 40 cents; if the totals is 5.0, the half goal is worth 45 cents.

Why do we need to know the worth of half a goal?

Suppose sports book A has Montreal -.5 -$220; sports book B has Montreal -1.5-$1.20. The total is 5.5 flat. You like the Habs, at which book do you bet? There is a difference of $1.00 between the bests. We know that a goal is worth 80 cents, therefore lay the -1.5-$1.20.

If a price is borderline, then lay the -1.5 or stay away form the game.

Many games open -.5+$1.30 with the dog +.5 -$1.50. A strong case could be made the the real dog is the team +.5-$1.50; regardless, opening a game with a line like that is absurd. Any knowledgeable sports book manager knows that opening that game at PICK PICK with smaller juice would yield a higher hold percentage. Roxy Roxborough, considered by many to be the leading oddsmaker in the world, scoffed at my query as to why books continued to put up –.5+$1.30 lines, saying: “The managers wouldn’t be able to figure it [the PICK line] out!”

Some books did put up pick lines, offering another option to the hockey bettors — and surprise, surprise — most books don’t know how to correlate the split line to the pick line!

Knowing what a goal is worth will eventually take you off of more games than not; but knowing when not to bet is just as important as knowing when to bet.

Try to get several outs (different lines to bet). And don’t be afraid (or too lazy) to go shopping. Some books play with their numbers (they like to think they are experts in every sport), and you will be surprised at the variety of prices available.

Learn to make your own numbers. What is the highest price you would pay if wanting to bet on New York, call it the cut-off point? Let’s say -.5 -$1.20. What’s the best price you would want if betting on Boston? Say +.5+$1.20. Split both lines down the middle, making your projected line: Rangers -.5-$1.10.

It’s better to do your numbers the night before, especially if you have access to overnight betting. It’s not unusual to see books put up overnight lines having incorrect favorites.

Chart your openers along with the line moves and results to see how your lines match up. The better your numbers are the less difference between your lines and the openers is needed to make you look at a potential play. Compare your line to the opening line. You made the Rangers -.5-$1.10, but the game opened Rangers -.5+$1.20; whenever an opening line is substantially off of your number, look at the game again to see if you missed something, maybe an injury or angle. For instance, you like the Rangers and the opener is 30 cents off of your line, but results over the course of the year have proven that your lines are better. After checking gain and finding nothing unordinary, the Rangers become a play.

If you’ve been getting beat and lines have moved against you, your line might have to be as high as 40 cents off before judging a game to be a play based strictly on your numbers.

Getting into the habit of making your own lines before hitting the sack will give you an excellent starting point for handicapping the next day’s schedule.

A successful betting season should yield approximately a 30 per cent return on your bankroll. For instance, if you started the year with a bankroll of $10,000 and completed the season with $13,000, consider it a terrific year.

Now, how to get those three dimes…

Never lay big prices. In the last four years, team laying -.5-$2.00 the favorites were only 50-42. Any so-called expert giving you a -$2.00 favorite should be slammed.

In the past four years whenever teams were -.5 and laying between -.$1.55 to -$1.95, teams were 363-268, just 58 per cent, a bit short of the 63 per cent needed to break even laying an averaged price of -$1.70. In the last three years just three teams laying between -$1.55 and -$1.95 posted a record good enough to make a slight profit: Colorado (65 per cent); Detroit (64 Per cent) and Toronto (76 per cent).

Want to lay -$1.30 on a game? Betting favorites and laying an average of -$1.30 requires you to hit at 57 per cent clip just to break even!

In the last three years just five teams won money at home: St.Louis, Washington, New Jersey, Detroit, and Buffalo. In fact, anyone betting Detroit at home for the last three years (based on betting to win $100) better not have layed more than -$1.45.

Still not convinced and you want to lay a price? Dallas is home against the Islanders. If both clubs were to meet ten times in an identical situation, how many games would Dallas win? Six? Then the theoretical price of the game would be Dallas -.5-$1.50. If Dallas opens -.5-$1.80 when home against the Isles, which is 30 cents off of the -$1.50...Dallas would not be a play.

What? You think Dallas could win seven out of ten home meetings vs the Isles? Then Dallas should be no higher that -$2.30. Laying less than -$2.30 would show a small profit, but only if the Stars win seven out of every ten meetings. Sorry, Dallas won just three of their last six home meetings vs the Islanders, so Dallas would still remain a no-play.

What about favorites on the PICK line? If you think Dallas can win six of ten form the Islanders, the price for them to win (-$1.50) remains the same. Thirteen in every 100 games ends tied, so let’s assume that 1.5 of every ten meetings between Dallas and the Islanders will end with a tie (or a push). Now the correct price on the game becomes -$1.80. Forget it. The books will have Dallas at PICK -$2.40 at best.

If betting a -$1.50 favorite on the pick line, the favorite has to go 6-3-1 just to break even, and since no club wins 65 per cent of their games, the best advice is to never lay more than -$1.20 to -$1.30 on PICK line favorites.

Since books using the PICK line shade the favorites (why?), always avoid laying big prices.

Find value. Look for the plus money. Period. That’s how you win betting hockey. Can you pick 47 per cent winners? That’s all you need to break even if you’ve a price of +$1.15. Find situations where god, high profile teams do poorly; look for spots where below average/average teams do well; find trends/situations where home teams do poorly.