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This is part two of our MLB Baseball betting guide, three part series. In this part we will take a look at the math behind the run line play and examine the teams from last year who were the top run line money makers. We will also begin to discuss a MLB wagering strategy that is so mind blowing and thought provoking it will leave you stunned.
The math dictates the run line wager is one of the best wagers in Baseball, but must be used only in certain situations. MLB team statistics can be found almost anywhere on the internet. Here are the top 5 teams from last year who played in the fewest one run wins while winning the most games. #1 Detroit Tigers 16 one runs wins in 2010. #2 New York Yankees 20 one run wins in 2010. #3 St. Louis Cardinals 20 one run wins in 2010. #4 Houston Astros 21 one run wins in 2010. #5 Boston Red Sox 22 one runs wins in 2010. Do not forget we are only using these teams on the run line when they are laying at least -150 or more and only when the pitching match up is entirely in our favor. If you use the run line wisely you can win 60% or more without having to lay large odds and in some cases even getting odds of +120 or more as an underdog. Remember only 12.3% of Yankees games ended with them winning by one run so don’t be afraid of taking certain large favorites on the run line to avoid those hefty odds. Veteran baseball bettors are well aware of the run line and its value; however my second strategy is so much more interesting and also controversial.
The word “fixed” is thrown around a lot when it comes to Sporting events. Usually you hear it come out of the mouth of a disgruntled gambler who was on the losing end and wants to blame someone else. We have seen over the years however both players and officials involved in their share of point shaving and fixing schemes. To say it doesn’t exist in sports is not being realistic. However there is a fine line between a game being “fixed” and knowing how a game will be called by the referees or umpire. Does the fact one umpire sees balls and strikes slightly different then the majority make him a cheater or dishonest? Of course not being behind home plate and calling balls and strikes is purely personal opinion. Does the knowledge of how a game might be called provide an advantage to a bettor? Absolutely, knowing how a game will likely be called is a huge advantage when deciding who to wager on.
If balls and strikes are personal opinion and human beings are creatures of habit it stands to reason that some MLB umpires call balls and strikes slightly differently and there could be a huge advantage if we could determine which umpires had this built in “bias” and what their tendencies were. When these numbers are tracked over many years there is a way we can determine by who the home plate umpire is what team likely will win or the likely outcome of the total. That is right I just said that we can pick MLB games correctly (over 60% of the time) by simply knowing the tendencies of the home plate umpire.
Strategy #2 – Bet on baseball according to how the home plate umpire calls the game. The umpires for each game are announced around 1 hour prior to game time of the first game in every series. Each game after that they simply rotate so it becomes very easy to know who the home plate umpire will be for the rest of the series. Sometimes finding that information for game 1’s can be difficult at best. It’s no coincidence that in the NBA this information is unavailable. Meaning no one knows which referees will be calling the game until just prior to the tip. The NBA, MLB, and even the NFL realize that they have some umpires, referees, and officiating crews who are essentially “biased”, but it is not done consciously. They aren’t calling it a certain way on purpose, they always call it that way. Call it a tendency, or a habit or just plain stubbornness but in MLB there are home plate umpires who are very transparent in how they call a game. This transparency can make you a fortune if you know where to find it and how to use it.
When I first started studying this last year I was amazed by what I found. Join me Friday here at cappersinfo.com for part 3 of this blog series on MLB betting advice and strategies where I will provide the evidence that is beyond question to prove my second strategy. This is a subject that is very controversial and potentially highly profitable. The facts might just surprise you as much as they surprised me. If you are a regular sports betting enthusiast you don’t want to miss it.