The Cincinnati Reds and the Atlanta Braves are going to square off as a part of the 2013 MLB betting campaign. Join us here at Cappers Info, as we make our July 11th baseball predictions for what should be a great game on Thursday.
Free MLB Picks: Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Date: Thursday, July 11th, 7:05 ET
Location: Turner Field, Atlanta, GA
Reds vs. Braves Live TV: MLB Network
Cincinnati Reds (Mat Latos) +109
Atlanta Braves (Tim Hudson) -114
The call in this one is very, very easy to make, as the oddsmakers are insinuating that the Reds really should be about -125 to -130 favorites in this game. Simply put, that’s a ridiculous notion. The Braves are the better of these two teams, and in spite of the records that both of these starting pitchers have, we have a lot more confidence in RHP Tim Hudson than we do in RHP Mat Latos. Don’t get us wrong, Latos has had a good season. He is 8-2 for the campaign, and he has a 3.18 ERA. However, advanced stats show that he is allowing a lot more contact than a 3.18 ERA suggests, and a WHIP of 1.22 is a bit high for a man who has such a low ERA. Latos has also been helped by getting significantly above average run support from his team at 5.6 runs per game. Hudson hasn’t been as fortunate. He’s only getting a below average 4.4 runs per game from his club, and in spite of the fact that he has a 4.03 ERA on the season, his WHIP hasn’t altered from the man that we learned to love over the years and is just 1.18. The bottom line with Hudson is that he is due to get luckier, while Latos is due to get a bit unluckier. Add in the fact that the Reds just lost two out of three to both Milwaukee and Seattle, while Atlanta is working with one of the best home records in baseball at 29-13, and it seems ridiculous that the Braves are only expected to win this game around 54% of the time.
Reds @ Braves Pick: Atlanta Braves -114
Reds @ Braves Score Prediction: Braves 6 – Reds 4