Tipster Holiday Bowl Picks: Baylor vs. UCLA Preview 12/27

5Dimes SportsbookMy 2012 Holiday Bowl picks between the UCLA Bruins and the Baylor Bears are all set and ready to go here at Cappers Info. The Holiday Bowl kickoff starts at 9:45 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA, and I’m going to be your expert college football handicapper that points you towards the winning bet for the UCLA vs. Baylor game.

2012 Holiday Bowl
Baylor Bears (7-5, 8-4 ATS) +3
UCLA Bruins (9-4, 8-5 ATS) -3
Over/Under 82.5

Holy total, Batman! I knew that this was going to be one of the highest scoring bowl games of the entire season, but to think that a number that opened at 77 has already risen by almost a touchdown to Arena Football type of numbers is a bit outrageous, even for a game with two teams in it that just seem to score at will all the time and get scored upon just as often. Still, I think that we are at the point of outrageousness, thinking that a game with a 42-38 score is still a field goal away from getting to the number in this one. There’s a good chance that you’re going to want to wait until the last second to put this play in, because this ‘total’ isn’t going anywhere but up from now through the 9:45 p.m. ET kickoff tonight.

Baylor’s defense has come up with at least a few palatable efforts of late. Since allowing 42 to Louisiana Monroe, 70 to Duke, 49 to TCU, and 56 to Texas, the defense hasn’t allowed more than 45 points in a game. The team has averaged conceding “just” 32.3 points per game, and the only game in the bunch that didn’t come against a bowl team was the 41-14 win over Kansas. The offense has been wildly inconsistent this year as well for the Bears, scoring 47 or more seven times but being held to just 21 twice as well. It is going to take a heck of a lot more than 21 to get to this number, which is the second highest number of the season behind the record-setting 88 that was listed on the college football odds on the final week of the regular season.


It has become a part of UCLA’s nature to play these high scoring games as well. Though six straight games have exceeded the ‘total’, including the last two games of the year against Stanford, none of those ‘totals’ were listed higher than 72. The only reason that 72 game against Arizona eclipsed the number is because of the fact that Arizona allowed 66 points. The Wildcats were held down to just 10. In the end, it would be fun to try to root for this one to feature 12 touchdowns, but it just doesn’t seem logical to think that that will be the way that it plays out. I’ve got to bet with my head and not my heart, and my head is telling me that this should be a game played comfortably into the high-60s or the low-70s and will still be classified as a wild shootout in spite of the fact that it will stay ‘under’ the number.

Baylor vs. UCLA Picks & Tips: Under 82.5

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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