Military Bowl Picks: Toledo vs. Air Force 12/28/11

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Points should be aplenty in the Military Bowl, and we are set to make our college football bowl picks in the clash between the Toledo Rockets and the Air Force Falcons in Washington DC.

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Military Bowl Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs. Air Force Falcons
Military Bowl Date/Time: Wednesday, December 28th, 4:30 ET
Military Bowl Location: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
Military Bowl Odds: Toledo -3
Military Bowl Total: 69.5
Military Bowl TV Coverage: ESPN,

Though there are games that might have more points in them this bowl season than the Military Bowl, you aren’t going to find all that many with a dynamic like this one. Toledo and Air Force both use a whole host of players to move the football, though the Rockets run a ridiculous spread attack, while the Falcons are running the triple option virtually all the time.

The good news for the Rockets is that they do have a rush defense that is pretty darn solid. They were able to hold down the Temple Owls, the only other team on their schedule that really predominantly runs the ball (after all, the MAC is a pass happy conference), and that does bode well for this game, though it’s clearly not the same type of attack that they need to ready themselves for this time around.

The bad news is that Air Force, unlike most of the rest of the triple option teams out there, has a quarterback that can run a traditional offensive scheme. QB Tim Jefferson, Jr. has gotten more and more liberties to throw the football as his career has gone on, and now that he is wrapping up his senior season of a fine career, he is sure to be allowed to do a lot offensively under Head Coach Troy Calhoun in this game. Jefferson had one of his worst years as a rusher, but in fairness, RB Asher Clark was also a 1,000-yard back this year, and Jefferson did throw for 1,478 yards and a dozen TDs.

The bad news for Air Force is that its defense has been shoddy against the run all year long. Though the Rockets deploy two quarterbacks in QBs Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin, they do run the ball quite a bit with a plethora of options as well, including both quarterbacks. WR Eric Page, who had over 1,100 receiving yards this year, could be a big time factor as well, though the Falcons do play very disciplined ball in the secondary.

In the end, these two teams combined for 76.6 points per game this year, and the bowl games are usually some of the highest scoring games of the year. After watching the Rockets play games in back to back weeks into the 120s, we know that absolutely anything is possible. Don’t let last year’s 14-7 Independence Bowl involving Air Force scare you. These two teams can, and will score points in bunches, and this one should at least get into the 80s.

Free Military Bowl Pick: Toledo/Air Force Over 69.5

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Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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