There are a lot of general mistakes that the average bettor makes when doing their NFL football betting. Every football season, Vegas gets a little brighter and bookies get a little bit richer. The reason for this is that the everyday player doesn’t know some of the basic principles of nfl football handicapping. In this article we have some NFL football betting tips. A group of contributing handicappers on the Cappersinfo forums have put together a list of some nfl football betting tips that every player should know. These are some basic handicapping ‘do’s and dont’s’ that you know before diving into the crazy world of football betting. Here they are:
- NFL Betting Tips (Tip #1): “Start Looking Early” – Before the season even begins, look through the schedule, look at the over/under win total props, and the futures (ie: Odds to Win the Superbowl, Division, etc.) at our top endorsed sportbooks. See which teams look like they are being overrated by the papers and TV. Read the the preseason articles; look through the NFL preview magazines; even watch some ESPN or NFL Live. Look to see which teams are being over hyped and see which teams seem like they have more talent then are being given credit for. See which teams you would think would be a good bet down the road in divisional matchups and such.
- NFL Betting Tips (Tip #2): “Don’t Follow the Crowd” – Don’t go with the popular plays. If you notice that all of your buddies are playing the same game and all of them like the same side, you should be very cautious of the game they are playing and even think about going the other way. If something seems to good to be true, then it probably is. If you see the public loading up on one single play, then the chances are that the public is not seeing something that the oddsmakers are aware of.
- Football Handicapping Tips (Tip #3): “Monitor the Injuries” – It goes without saying that when a QB, RB, LB, or WR for example are hurt that team isn’t going to be playing as well. But keep in mind, the defense and offense are usually only as good as the lines. A good offensive line and make a poor QB (see Rex Grossman) a winner. Conversely, a bad offensive line can kill and QB’s career (see David Carr). On the other side of the ball, if then D-line if short a starter or two, a good football team will run to the weaker side of the line and be able to control the flow and tempo of the game. This is very important for an offense. Look for key injuries to the line, ie. A great defensive line is going up against an offensive line that is missing one or two starters could greatly impact the final score… and this is often overlooked by the majority of casual bettors.
- NFL Betting Advice (Tip #4): “Don’t Buy In To The Hype” – Major sports media outlets such as ESPN, Fox Sports, Yahoo; are all about one thing, ratings. And what makes for better ratings than hyping up a certain player or team over the course of a few weeks while that team/players stock is at it’s highest? You’re objective as a bettor is to look for teams that posses “good value” and not to play the biggest spread every week because team A is so much better than team B. This the reason why teams such as New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego all have such inflated lines week in and week out. The media talks about these teams at such length that it’s easy to dismiss the team they are playing as a legitimate threat. Look for these teams in a “trap game” situation and it could pay dividends later on.
- NFL Handicapping Advice (Tip #5): “Beware of Heavy Favorites” – Did you know that double-digit favorites were 14-22-1 ATS in 2007, and an astounding 8-20-1 ATS after week 5? With the amount of parody in the NFL currently, it’s very difficult for any team (no matter how good) to cover a double digit spread. Tip #2 discusses using public betting stats to pick against a certain team, this also holds true for double-digit favorites since the majority of the public action will be on the favorite in this scenario.
- NFL Football Betting Tips (Tip #6): “It’s a Whole New Season” – Try to forget about last season. Do not base too much of your action on how each team did last season. There will be teams that went 12-4 last season that will go 6-10 this season. If you are going to base your picks on last seasons data, be sure to take note of the changes that the teams in the matchup have made. A perfect example of a change that might not come to mind right away is the Houston Texans who may be an improved team under new leadership at the quarterback position. Remember; Teams change in the NFL and do not forget that.
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