2011 Super Bowl Picks: Handicapping the Super Bowl 46 Odds (12/6)

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There are just four weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, and as we come down the stretch of the regular season, here are the teams that we are keying in on four our Super Bowl 46 picks.

Green Bay Packers (+175 at Diamond Sportsbook): We have to be brutally honest with this Green Bay team. This is absolutely the best team in the league this year, and there is no way that there is another team is going to get the nod over these guys this year. That’s not to say that there can’t be an upset, because goodness knows that there can be. Forget about the idea of the 16-0 regular season for a second, because the truth of the matter is that that is a novelty. The Packers are going to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC whether it is 16-0, 15-1, or 14-2. They’ll probably end up at 16-0 and go into the playoffs trying to become the first 19-0 team in league history. Their first playoff game is going to be against the likes of Dallas or one of the Wild Card teams, and we just don’t think that any of those stand a chance of going into Lambeau Field and pulling off the upset. At that point, we have +175 odds that the Pack can beat the Saints or Niners at home and then a team like a Baltimore or New England in the Super Bowl. Green Bay would be at least a TD favorite on average in both games, which makes this price truly remarkable even though it is incredibly short for a team to beat the Super Bowl odds right now.

Baltimore Ravens (+950 at Diamond Sportsbook : If the Ravens have proven nothing else this year, it is that they definitely play to the level of their opponents. Their three losses are all against teams that almost certainly aren’t going to make the playoffs (the lone exception being potentially the road defeat at the Titans), and they already have wins against Pittsburgh (twice), Houston, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. In all likelihood, Baltimore won’t be an underdog in a game again in the regular season, and if the chalk holds up, it won’t be a dog in a game against until the Super Bowl unless it has to play at New England in the AFC Championship Game. If this team does get the No. 1 seed in the AFC as we are expecting, the road to the Super Bowl could feature a path as potentially easy as home games against Denver and Houston. Sure, it could be as difficult as Pittsburgh and New England as well, and the possibility is there to lose out on the division title and then have to go on the road for three games to reach the Super Bowl, but we still trust that QB Joe Flacco and the gang are going to be 2 to 1 favorites to win the AFC when this regular season is said and done with.

Denver Broncos (+5500 at Diamond Sportsbook): We really hate to admit it, but perhaps the Broncos are really worth backing at this price. We really would have preferred the 100 to 1 and up that the team was a few weeks ago, because we really don’t see this QB Tim Tebow offense beating the Steelers or the Ravens this year, but let’s just be realistic… the possibility is there that both teams could be dodged in the playoffs, and we wouldn’t put it past Tebow to be able to somehow pull a rabbit out of his hat and get the job done against anyone else in the conference. Denver just took the AFC West lead, and on the way out this year, it has games against Chicago, New England, Buffalo, and Kansas City. At worst, this should really be a 10-6 team, and that’s going to be good enough for, at worst, the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. Heck, a win over New England in two weeks could still legitimately earn this team the top seed in the conference if 11-5 gets the job done since it will probably win every tiebreaker against the rest of the teams in the AFC.

Seattle Seahawks or Arizona Cardinals (+20000 at Diamond Sportsbook): We know that we’re kind of dumping both of these teams together, and we also know that most sportsbooks aren’t even offering odds on these two teams to win the Super Bowl, but perhaps they should. The Cardinals have won two straight and three out of four, while the Seahawks have already proven that they can play with some of the best teams in the league. They both have relatively easy schedules on the way out (though they play each other in Week 17 in the desert), and it is clear that no one wants the two Wild Card slots in the NFC. Case in point? Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, and New York all lost last weekend. The Lions and Bears are a mess, and the Cowboys and Giants are going to beat each other up. 8-8 might get someone in the playoffs, and both of these teams have the potential to finish up at 9-7. You never know when you get into the postseason, so at these types of odds, both of these teams are clearly worth a cheap flyer.

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Cappersinfo.com Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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