2013 Week 5 Free NFL Football Picks for Sunday, 10/6

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Week 5 Sunday NFL Football Picks Below
Last Week’s (Week Four) Results
: 7-7 (50%)

2013 NFL Regular Season Results: 44-42-2 (50%)

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Date and Time: Sunday 10/6/13 at 1:00pm on CBS
Game Line: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (from 5Dimes)
Over/Under: 38.5
Preview: The Kansas City Chiefs will look to go 5-0 for the first time in a decade when they travel to Nashville to play the Titans, who are trying for their first three game winning streak in three years.  Despite throwing his first two interceptions of the 2013 season last Sunday vs the Giants, QB Alex Smith threw three touchdowns in a 31-7 rout of New York.  He has been the biggest reason for the Chiefs early season success, they have scored over double the number of points with half the number of turnovers compared to the 2012 campaign.  Running back Jamaal Charles has overcome some small injuries to rank third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage at 125 per game.  Defensively, the Chiefs have been one of the strongest teams in the league, averaging 10.3 points allowed per game and an NFL high 18 sacks.  The Titans are an improved team as well, but they’re going to be missing QB Jake Locker with a hamstring injury and journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will try to limit the turnovers and run an effective offense like Locker did before leaving last weeks game with an injury.  Something is going to have to give in this game as Tennessee allows the fewest sacks in the AFC and have yet to turn the ball over this season.  Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Chris Johnson from the Titans here as they try to limit the mistakes from Fitzpatrick and as their biggest playmaker he gives the Titans offense the best chance to be successful against this stout Chief defense.  The Chiefs are on the road here, but having their QB and more playmakers should be the difference in this one.  We were mildly surprised by the small spread, but not enough to scare us from betting on the most improved team this season, and maybe in NFL history.

Chiefs at Titans Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -2.5 and over 38.5
Chiefs at Titans Game Prediction: 24-17 Chiefs
What to expect in this week 5 NFL matchup:
This will be a high quality football game.  There will be no turnovers, few penalties, smart coaching, solid defense and a few big plays.  Both teams will use a heavy dose of their star running backs, Johnson for Tennessee and Charles for Kansas City, and limit the chances for their quarterbacks to hurt their drives.  Kansas City has the mojo going for them and the best defense in football right now but their biggest advantage is at wide receiver, where Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery are better than anything the Titans have to offer.  This will help Kansas City keep drives alive and find the endzone more often than the Titans who won’t hold up without QB Jake Locker.

 

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Date and Time: Sunday 10/6/13 at 1:00pm on FOX
Game Line: Green Bay Packers -7.5 (from 5Dimes)
Over/Under: 53.5
Preview: The Detroit Lions are going to Green Bay in first place in the NFC North and if they are going to stay there they are going to have to end another massive losing streak.  After winning in Washington DC for the first time in 21 tries last week, the Lions will try to end a 22-game drought in Green Bay.  These two offenses are the best in the league minus Denver.  They each average over 400 yards of offense and 30 points per game.  Reggie Bush is proving to be a big reason for this as he ran for 139 yards on 18 carries against a very solid run defense in Chicago.  They haven’t had a rushing attack like this since Barry Sanders and it is the biggest reason for their hot start.  If Bush can stay healthy they should compete for a playoff spot in the NFC.  The Green Bay Packers are coming off a loss and a bye week, which makes them even more dangerous, as should the return of RB Eddie Lacy who missed a game with a concussion before the bye.  The key to this game is going to be the Packers pass defense, which ranks 28th in the league against a very pass happy Detroit offense.  Calvin Johnson loves playing at Lambeau, though his team can’t win he has 362 receiving yards in his last two trips there.  Hamstrings have LB Clay Matthews and CB Casey Hayward questionable for this game and without them they don’t have the defense to slow down the Packers offensively.  However, the Lions are known for their weak secondary and Aaron Rodgers has been picking them apart ever since coming into the league.  He averages 300 yards passing against Detroit and there is no reason to think he won’t replicate that here.  This game will be a high scoring shootout, if Detroit’s stout defensive line can get to Aaron Rodgers without added blitz pressure, allowing 7 to drop back into coverage they might slow him down.  While Green Bay should and probably will win this game, 7.5 is too many points against a team that can score like Detroit.  Vegas isn’t giving the Lions new balanced offense enough credit and they will be competing in the NFC into December this year because of it.

Lions at Packers Free NFL Pick: Lions +7.5 and over 53.5
Lions at Packers Game Prediction: 31-27 Packers
What to expect in this week 5 NFL matchup: 
Two of the league’s top passing offenses face off against two of the leagues worst pass defenses should lead to plenty of scoring.  Detroit knows they need to win this game to establish themselves as a contender and Green Bay needs it to continue their reign of the NFC North.  The two key matchups in this game are the Green Bay offensive line keeping Aaron Rodgers in the pocket and upright, and the Packers front seven stopping Reggie Bush and making Stafford one dimensional and prone to mistakes.  The Lions are a team on the rise, but they’re not ready to win a big road division game against one of the games best QB’s coming off a bye week.  We really like them to keep this game within the spread though.

 

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Date and Time: Sunday 10/6/13 at 1:00pm on FOX
Game Line: Chicago Bears pk (from 5Dimes)
Over/Under: 48.5
Preview: The New Orleans Saints are undefeated and the Chicago Bears have one loss but neither team is doing it the way you’d expect.  The Bears are averaging more points per game than the Saints and the Saints are averaging half as many points allowed as the Bears early in 2013.  The Saints new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan deserves credit for turning around a below average Saints defense and turning them into one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL again.  Anyone who believes coaching doesn’t matter in the NFL needs to look no farther than what the Saints have done between last year and this year.  They recovered from their bounty-gate season like it never happened and are already on a roll.  Tight end Jimmy Graham is not only the Saints leading receiver, he is top 5 in the NFL in touchdowns, yards, touches and redzone targets.  No team has an answer for him and Drew Brees knows it.  Combine that with running back Darren Sproles who has fit right in and receiver Marques Colston and the Saints have as many offensive weapons as anyone in the NFL.  Chicago used a precise offense and a typically opportunistic defense to a 3-0 start before struggling on both sides of the ball in a loss at Detroit last week.  Jay Cutler is the definition of a hit or miss quarterback.  If he doesn’t have an early interception or a fumble he is usually good for an entire game, but if he starts negatively the whole game goes negatively like it did against Detroit where he had 2 interceptions and a lost fumble.  Matt Forte is an elite running back and he is going to have to have a great game to keep Drew Brees off the field and keep the clock and chains moving at home on Sunday.  There are a few key factors playing against the Bears here.  Their opportunistic defense won’t see many opportunities against an offense led by Drew Brees, who simply doesn’t throw interceptions.  Chicago has relied heavily on defensive big plays and even touchdowns, but they won’t find them here.  The Bears are also 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 home games.  Soldier Field in September just isn’t as scary as it is in December.  This game is a tough one to pick a side, but the OVER has hit the last six times these teams have played, the Saints defense can’t be as good as it has played to this point, and Drew Brees will limit turnovers and score points in this game.  The OVER is our favorite pick in this game.

Saints at Bears Free NFL Pick: Saints pk and over 48.5
Saints at Bears Game Prediction: 31-26 Saints
What to expect in this week 5 NFL matchup:
If Chicago is going to win this game they’re going to have to force some turnovers against a team that doesn’t commit them.  Their defensive scoring and setting up the offense has been a big reason for their 3-1 start but they won’t get those opportunities here.  Both tightends will score touchdowns, both running backs will have success and both quarterbacks will limit the turnovers and give their team a chance to win.  The Saints just have the big game experience and are on a roll.  The team that has the ball last will probably win this game, defensive stops will be at a premium, and in this kind of game we like Drew Brees to pull it out.

 

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Date and Time: Sunday 10/6/13 at 4:25pm on CBS

Game Line: Denver Broncos -8.5 (from 5Dimes)
Over/Under: 56
Preview: The Dallas Cowboys are 2-2, and come into this game as a 8.5 point home underdog, they haven’t been home dogs of this magnitude in 13 years, but when you host the Denver Broncos this year you’re going to be an underdog.  Chances are this line will be even higher by the time the game kicks off Sunday.  Peyton Manning just wrapped up the best September from any QB in NFL history, completing an astounding 75% of his passes in four blowout wins.  Also, the Broncos historically dominate the Cowboys and they dominate as road favorites going all the way back to John Elway.  Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has turned around what was a very sub-par defense recently, they’re one of the best in the league against the run and they have been making big plays left and right.  Unfortunately, the Cowboys defense isn’t elite against the pass, and that is what Denver does.  If Peyton Manning can carve up defenses like Baltimore, Oakland, Philadelphia and New York there’s no reason he won’t see the same success in the dome in Dallas.  Denver will also get CB Champ Bailey back for this game to help stop Cowboys WR Dez Bryant, who is one of the best in the NFL.  This game just isn’t a very good matchup for the Cowboys who don’t have the defensive prowess to stop one of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen.  Dallas knows they’re going to have to get pressure on Peyton Manning if they’re going to slow him down.  DeMarcus Ware is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL but he can’t do it by himself.  They’re going to have to design some exotic blitz packages that Peyton hasn’t prepared for and knock him around early and often if they’re going to have any hope.  If the Denver offensive front steps up again this week, there’s no way Dallas is going to keep this within the number.  Until we see a team slow Denver’s offense down we will continue to pick them, and the Dallas pass defense certainly shouldn’t scare anyone, especially Peyton.

Broncos at Cowboys Free NFL Pick: Broncos -8.5 and under 53
Broncos at Cowboys Game Prediction: 31-20 Broncos
What to expect in this week 5 NFL matchup:
Peyton Manning won’t be stopped here.  Dallas is going to have to score a ton of points to keep themselves within the number here and with the return of Champ Bailey, we just don’t see that happening.  Peyton’s numbers won’t be as gaudy here, they will get RB Knoshon Moreno involved, but 300 yards and 2 TD’s isn’t impossible.  Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray is going to have to have a career day to keep Peyton off the field and while Denver’s defense will give up some rushing yards, they won’t allow the kind of points Dallas is going to need to score to cover this spread.

 

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Date and Time: Sunday 10/6/13 at 11:30 on NFL Network
Game Line: San Diego Chargers -4 (from 5Dimes)
Over/Under: 45
Preview: The NFL has a late night degenerate special this week as San Diego visits Oakland.  There was a scheduling conflict with the Oakland A’s home playoff game the night prior, so the game has been moved to 11:30pm EST and will start after the Sunday Night Football game on NFL Network.  This will surely raise the number of bets and viewers this game will have.  The San Diego Chargers offense has turned back the clock a few years under new coach Mike McCoy and his up tempo offensive attack.  Antonio Gates, while many thought his career was coming to an end, has been as effective as ever with 315 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two games.  QB Philip Rivers is off to his best start in the last seven years, completing 73% of his passes and more impressively, 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions.  Last week against the Cowboys, Rivers set an NFL record completing 83.3% of his attempts and going over 400 yards.  Defensively, the Chargers and Raiders have been the definition of average.  They’re middle of the pack in sacks, turnovers forced, points and yards allowed.  The difference in this game is San Diego coming in healthy, and Oakland quite literally limping.  QB Terell Pryor has been out with a concussion but is expected to play.  Star running back Darren McFadden is very questionable with a hamstring injury and his backup/fullback Marcel Reece is going to miss extended time leaving Rashard Jennings, the third string back to carry much of the load.  To make matters worse they’re without starting center Stefen Wisiniewski, which won’t make things any easier for the Raiders offense that is already struggling.  The Raiders will rely on Pryor to make plays with his legs and to speedy WR Denarious Moore, who is having a career season already.  Unfortunately, that won’t be enough to handle a Chargers offense with all of its pieces and clicking on all cylinders.  The Raiders don’t have an abundance of offense when they’re all healthy, but without their top two running backs this game will be out of reach for the Raiders.

Chargers at Raiders Free NFL Pick: Chargers -4 and under 45
Chargers at Raiders Game Prediction: 27-17 Chargers
What to expect in this week 5 NFL matchup:
The Chargers defense is not anything special, but against a Raiders offense missing several key pieces they will be very successful.  Terell Pryor will bring his back yard QB style to try to generate some yards on the ground himself but that won’t be enough to hold up against a Chargers passing attack that has been overachieving.  Philip Rivers will be successful again this week.  Oakland’s defense isn’t awful, but Rivers has the weapons in Gates, Woodhead and Mathews that Pryor doesn’t.

 

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
Date and Time: Sunday 10/6/13 at 8:30pm on NBC
Game Line: 49ers -7.5 (from 5Dimes)
Over/Under: 41.5
Preview: Sunday Night Football features a pair of 2-2 teams with much higher expectations.  The Texans and 49ers both have high hopes of winning divisions and playing in Super Bowls but neither has looked as impressive through four weeks.  The 49ers offensive line will be put to the text in this game, holding off the fearsome pass rush of J.J. Watt, who gets all of the recognition but Whitney Mercilus and Antonio Smith are two of the better “under the radar” defensive linemen in the NFL.  The Texans are top ten against the rush, and pass, and in sack totals through four weeks.  On the defensive side of the ball San Francisco will likely see a lot of Ben Tate and Arian Foster, the running back tandem that has been very solid early on.  Given Matt Schaub’s struggles of late, the wise course of action is to use the two a lot.  The 49ers have been boom or bust against the run this year, they shut down the Rams rushing attack last week but the Texans bring much better rushing personal and schemes to the table.  The Texans offense ranks fourth in yards per game, although much of those yards have come at the end of very close games.  The Texans have not shown the ability to blow out anyone and always find a way to let opposing teams hang around.  Matt Schaub is having one of his worst seasons, has been turning the ball over frequently and is having problems finding his main target, Andre Johnson, who is having health issues of his own.  The Texans are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games and we don’t think that number is going to get any better here against a San Francisco team that looked to be putting it together, has had a few extra days to prepare for this game and doesn’t turn the ball over nearly as much as the Texans do.  While we think the 49ers get a win here, we are probably more confident in the under here.  While both of these offenses have been wildly inconsistent, their defense has been stout.  Both rank in the top 5 and force many turnovers against quarterbacks who have been prone to turning the ball over once or twice per game.  Combine that with the heavy dose of run we expect to see from both sides against top-tier rushing defenses and this should be a low scoring game.

Texans at 49ers Free NFL Pick: 49ers -7.5 and under 41.5
Texans at 49ers Game Prediction: 23-16 49ers
What to expect in this week 5 NFL matchup:
The Texans will show they have little faith in Matt Schaub by running the ball a ton in this game and limiting his opportunities to make mistakes.  Arian Foster is too good not to bust out a few big gainers, but the 49ers rush defense is good enough to contain him over the course of a game.  The 49ers have always been a run heavy offense, but they won’t find much success against a great Houston front seven either.  San Francisco will have a lead in the fourth quarter that will prove insurmountable because Matt Schaub can’t be trusted to lead his team to comeback late in the fourth quarter against the 49ers defense.

Davis Wagner has been a long time contributer at the Cappersinfo.com Handicapping community and is a major assett to our establishment. He is solid handicapper and has a keen understanding value sports betting. Davis has been avidly posting on the Cappersinfo forums for almost a decade and is one of the most tenured members of this community. Davis is a major contributor and it's safe to say this sit wouldn't be where it is today without him.

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