Week 9 NFL Football Picks: Saints vs Jets (11/3/13)

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New Orleans Saints at New York Jets
Date and Time: Sunday, 11/3/13 @ 1pm EST on FOX
Game Line: New Orleans Saints -6 (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 45
Sunday NFL Football Analysis: With lots of young talent who are eager to prove, the Saints vowed to become balanced on both sides of the ball this season.  Defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan stated last year, when he was fired by the Cowboys, that he would be out of work for less than a day.  While it took more than a day, the Saints felt he was the one to change their defensive attitude and scheme.  At this point in the NFL season, it looks like it was a match made in heaven between Ryan and the offensive guru in head coach Sean Peyton.  While Saints fans weren’t overly joyed about the Ryan hire at the time, they have certainly warmed up to the fiery defensive coach.  Ryan came in and changed the whole defensive scheme, focusing more on speed, sound tackling, and forcing turnovers.  Thus far this NFL season, the defensive transformation has been pretty successful.  They are no longer an “offense only” show with lousy defense. Under Ryan’s tutelage and leadership, this New Orleans defense has been transformed into a ball hawking & blitz happy defense, and their defensive unit has truly been one of the biggest surprises and most exciting transformations of the 2013 NFL season.  Ryan’s defense and the Drew Brees-led Saints defense will try to continue this success on Sunday, as Rob takes on his twin brother in the Jets head coach, Rex Ryan.  New Orleans remains one of the best teams statistically in terms of both points per game and points against, a deadly combination.  They also played one of the more difficult schedules thus far.  Despite Atlanta’s and Tampa’s struggles, as the NFC South are one of the most difficult divisions in all of football this year.  Their high scoring offense and air-it-out approach makes the Saints a very attractive option for everyday public NFL bettors.  After taking a week off to refocus after a demoralizing loss in New England in week 7, the bye couldn’t have come at a better time.  It looks as if they should have their way with the Jets young offense, led by rookie QB Geno Smith, who has been the definition of inconsistent this season.  While, Geno is clearly not in the same talent pool as the top young QB’s such as Luck, Newton, and Kaepernick, he has shown flashes of being able to handle the job.  But, the inconsistency has been as extreme as it gets.  One week he will look like the Jets answer at the quarterback position; reading defenses, making poised throws, and playing brilliantly.  However, he will then look like the complete opposite the next week and has Jets fans wishing Mark Sanchez was the starter (yes, that’s how bad he looked last week).  The Jets were not only humiliated, but kicked around in a 49-9 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  However, returning home should afford them a bit more confidence as they have played well at home.  They’re going to need to step up against Drew Brees, who is still thrashing regular season passing records by the game.  Drew hasn’t enjoyed much success against the Jets during his carrer, but it’s also not much of a sample size.  In four career starts against Rex Ryan’s Jets, Brees is 2-2 with three TD’s and five interceptions…rather “Unbreezy” numbers.  Meanwhile, the recent development of young WR Kenny Stills as a deep threat, has added to the Saints offensive firepower and given them the ability to scale the receiving core a bit younger.  This addition along with Jimmy Graham having two weeks to heel his ailing foot, the Jets will have to take on an offense that can beat you all over the field.  However, the Jets defense should be up to the task and out to prove they can stop anyone.  The New York Jets defense is still among the best in the league and do have the talent and the balance to at least slow down the Saints offense.  While most will assume the Saints will dominate and not even given it a second thought, it may be smart to re-evaluate.  While the Saints are likely anxious to rebound from their loss two weeks ago, the Jets defense will give the Saints everything they can handle on Sunday, which should make for a closer game than most expect.
New Orleans Saints vs New York Jets Free NFL Picks: New York Jets +6.5 and under 46
New Orleans Saints vs New York Jets Game Prediction: Saints: 27 / Jets: 26
What to Expect and How to Bet on the Saints at Jets: The Jets have been boom or bust all season, and should be closer to boom after being destroyed last week.  They have the balance in secondary, as well as with the line-backers and defensive line to give Drew Brees some headaches on the road.  While, Geno Smith is likely to have a turnover or two, the Jets run balance should offer them the opportunity to move the chains and keep Brees on the sidelines for at least half the game.  A big player or two will likely keep the Jets in this game.  This game will likely result in a hard fought Saints victory due to their offensive firepower and the ability to put together a game sealing drive.  One thing is for sure, if the Saints have the opportunity to run out the clock, Peyton will no longer put it in the hands of his defense; even if he has to, you better believe New Orleans worked on their prevent coverage schemes.  Again, we see a close game with the Jets just coming up short.  If you can get the Jets at +7 or more, we say take it and run. The Jets at +6.5 should provide for a nice opportunity to tease them up and get a home dog at +13 or more.  Look at Buffalo as a nice team to pair them up with in a teaser.

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Cappersinfo.com Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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