Beating The NFL Odds: 2011 Week 13 Sunday NFL Picks 12/4/11

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NFL betting action is here again! Here at Cappers Info, we’re making our running tally of NFL picks this year, continuing with action on Sunday, December 4th!

Year To Date Record: 38-46 ATS
Upset Record: 10-22, -$1,120

Week 13 NFL Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears
Date: Sunday, December 4th, 1:00 ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
NFL Lines: Chicago -7
Over/Under 37.5
Week 13 NFL TV Schedule: CBS

We made mention in our NFL upsets the fact that the Kansas City defense has had its moments of playing better football of late, and we are standing by that. We know that the Bears play remarkable defense at home, and that shouldn’t be an exception on Sunday, especially with whatever combination of QB Tyler Palko and QB Kyle Orton that Head Coach Todd Haley wants to throw their way. QB Caleb Hanie still looks lost, and we don’t think that he really has the ability to put more than 20 on the board in a game like this unless RB Matt Forte goes absolutely bonkers. Even then, with as bad as the KC offense has been, we’ll take our chances with the ‘under’.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Kansas City/Chicago Under 37.5

Week 13 NFL Matchup: Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Date: Sunday, December 4th, 1:00 ET
Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
NFL Lines: Miami -3
Over/Under 43
Week 13 NFL TV Schedule: CBS

The Dolphins have gone from a total zero to a team that is now favored by a field goal against a division leader. Miami won’t make the playoffs this year, but the team is playing well. Of course, the Raiders have put together a great string of games with QB Carson Palmer calling the shots, but we definitely have some concerns. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey has basically been nowhere to be found at times, and both WR Denarius Moore and WR Jacoby Ford are out with injuries. RB Darren McFadden will be sidelined as well, and the backup to RB Michael Bush, RB Taiwan Jones is down in this one to boot. There just aren’t enough offensive weapons for Raider Nation to come clear across the country in one of their longest road trips of the season and to pull out a victory. Lay the field goal.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Miami -3

Week 13 NFL Matchup: Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans
Date: Sunday, December 4th, 1:00 ET
Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
NFL Lines: Atlanta -3
Over/Under 38
Week 13 NFL TV Schedule: FOX

Let’s be realistic for just a second about the Texans. We know that QB TJ Yates has been forced into battle in this one with both of the quarterbacking Matt’s in front of him on the depth chart out of the fold. We also know that he didn’t score a single point in the second half against the Jaguars last week, and now he has to contend with an Atlanta team that is every bit as good as its 7-4 record suggests. However, there is nothing wrong with the Houston ground game, as both RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate will surely get at least 40 touches between them, and the defense has no new problems either. The Falcons are banged up defensively and could have some real problems contending with this rushing attack, though they are only allowing 4.0 YPC for the season. The Texans have only been beaten once this year at home, and we aren’t sold that that number is going to change this week. Take the points in what should be an awfully close game.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Houston +3

Week 13 NFL Matchup: Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Date: Sunday, December 4th, 1:00 ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
NFL Lines: New England -20.5
Over/Under 47.5
Week 13 NFL TV Schedule: CBS

Remember back a few months ago when everyone thought that this game was actually going to be good? No mas. The Colts are a train wreck, but they are at least going to have something to fall back onto this week in the form of QB Dan Orlovsky. The former UConn Husky is going to become the third different starting quarterback not named QB Peyton Manning to start a game this year, and he has the dubious task of playing against the Pats in Foxboro for his first test. That being said, New England is going to get its points, especially since this Indy defense is allowing right around 30 per game against average teams. However, we have seen at least a little bit of spunk in the Colts of late. They had the ball with a shot to tie the Carolina Panthers last week, and they were at least competent against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sure, this team only had one road game decided by less than 10 points all season long, but we need to stick within 20, not 10. We’re more hoping than anything else, but we do think that getting 20.5 is just too much in any NFL game, especially since this New England defense has looked vulnerable. We’ll hedge our bets with the dogs and the ‘over’.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Indianapolis +20.5 and Over 47.5

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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