Hot Bets from the Football Tipster: Dolphins @ Bills Pick 11/15/12

Of all of the games on the Thursday 11/15 Week 11 NFL betting schedule, one of my favorite is the clash between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. Join me for my tips for this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on the NFL Network.

Miami Dolphins (4-5, 4-5 ATS) +1
Buffalo Bills (3-6, 4-5 ATS) -1
Over/Under 45

History suggests that the Dolphins are going to struggle to put points on the board this week against the Bills, and it is going to show for sure. Take away last year’s bizarre game for RB Reggie Bush in December against a Buffalo team that had already really given up on the year, and what’s left are a whole bunch of games where the Dolphins have failed to get out of the teens when playing here in Buffalo. In fact, the road team in this series had scored between eight and 17 points in 11 straight games before last year’s 30-point explosion for the Dolphins.

More about this matchup that I like: RB Fred Jackson is out of the fold, and that leaves just RB CJ Spiller to carry the rock. Spiller had success when he was the lone tailback in the offense at the outset of the year with Jackson hurt, and though he averaged over 10 yards per carry in two games, he did so against the lowly Jets, who had given up defending the run because they were up so many points, and the lowly Chiefs, who only took the lead for the first time in a game this season on Monday.

In the end, the ‘under’ is most certainly the right play to make. The Bills’ defense has been bad, but it isn’t going to be this bad once again in this game now that they are back at home and playing against manageable opponents. Remember that QB Ryan Tannehill has a grand total of just five TD passes all season long, and that won’t cut it against Buffalo.

Dolphins @ Bills Tips: Under 45

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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