Free Monday Night Football NFL Week 4 Picks: Patriots vs Chiefs (9/29/14)

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New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Monday, 9/29/14 at 8:35m on ESPN
Game Line: New England Patriots -3.5 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under: 44.5
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night NFL Football Analysis: The New England Patriots have been one of the best offenses in the NFL for a decade now, but a slow start has many wondering if their run as an elite unit may be coming to an end. Luckily for the Patriots, a much improved defense has kept them relevant after three games.  New England has failed to crack 300 yards of offense twice in three games after doing so only four times in 2013. They haven’t finished below eighth in total offense since 2006, but are currently 27th in the league at 301.3 yards per game.  Tom Brady’s slow start has been targeted by many of New England’s critics. He ranks 30th with 5.54 yards per attempt, and his 82.9 passer rating is 23rd. The nine-time Pro Bowler has completed just 1 of his 13 attempts of 21 yards or longer downfield.  New England’s offensive line, which lost All-Pro Logan Mankins to trade, has struggled as well allowing seven sacks in three games.  The Patriots have also been ineffective on the ground with a 3.5 yards-per-carry average that ranks near the bottom of the league. New England managed just 76 yards in Sunday’s 16-9 win over Oakland, which had given up 400 rushing yards in its first two games.  On the other side of the football, the Patriots are one of the best teams in the league against the run holding the Vikings and Raiders to a combined 121 rushing yards.  Kansas City is hopeful Jamaal Charles will return after missing last weeks game with a knee injury.  He has been practicing on a limited basis this week and it is looking like he will be ready by Monday night.  Smith, like Brady, is also seeking better protection after being sacked five times Sunday and 11 times on the season, second most in the NFL.  Both of these defenses are among the best in the league through three games, allowing only 300 yards per game, and with New England’s struggling offense the under seems like the safest play in this game.  We’re comfortable betting New England under’s until their offense starts to show signs of life and the ability to find the end zone more often.

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Monday Night Football New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Picks: Kansas City +3.5 and under 44.5

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Game Prediction: 20-17 Kansas City

What to expect in this Week 4 NFL Football match up: This isn’t the New England team we have grown accustomed to in the last ten years.  Their offensive line can’t stop opposing front sevens, they can’t get the running game going and they are without an elite receiver.  With Rob Gronkowski only playing 40% of the teams snaps and Amendola only averaging three catches per game it is hard to see them getting their offense going on the road, against a top tier defense.  On the other side, a hobbled Jamaal Charles is better than no Jamaal Charles, he will see a heavy workload and keep New England’s offense off the field.  There will be more field goals than touchdowns in this game as both defenses bend but don’t break and that will help this one stay under the total.

Davis Wagner has been a long time contributer at the Cappersinfo.com Handicapping community and is a major assett to our establishment. He is solid handicapper and has a keen understanding value sports betting. Davis has been avidly posting on the Cappersinfo forums for almost a decade and is one of the most tenured members of this community. Davis is a major contributor and it's safe to say this sit wouldn't be where it is today without him.