Free NFL Week 13 Monday Night Pick: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Date and Time: Monday, 12/1/14 at 8:25pm (EST) on ESPN

Game Line: Miami -7 (from WagerWeb)

Over/Under: 41.5

Monday NFL Football Analysis: The 6-5 Miami Dolphins take on the 2-9 New York Jets for the week 13 edition of Monday Night Football from MetLife Stadium is East Rutherford, NJ.

The Dolphins are coming off a 39-36 loss at Denver as they were outscored 22-8 in the 4th quarter after holding a lead for the majority of the game. Ryan Tannehill has definitely progressed this season, completing 66% of his passes for 2582 yards and 20 Touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Mike Wallace leads the team in receiving, but Jarvis Landry has been a pleasant surprise with 450 yards and 5 Touchdowns. Lamar Miller has picked up the slack after the season-ending injury to Knowshon Moreno, with 673 yards and 5 Touchdowns averaging 4.9 yards per carry. The Miami defense is ranked 2nd in the league in total defense allowing just 302 yards per game and have a solid pass rush that has registered 31 sacks this season.

There’s not much to say about the Jets, they’re 2-9 and are coming off a 38-3 loss to Buffalo. You would think the Jets would have had the advantage in that game, playing on a neutral field in Detroit, not having a massive snowstorm to disrupt practice time, etc. Nope, that wasn’t the case as the Jets were destroyed by the Bills for the second time this season. Geno Smith has been named the starter after being benched back after the week 8 loss to Buffalo. While the Jets offense leaves little to be desired, the defense is actually ranked 3rd in the league in total defense allowing just 324 yards per game. The fact that their offense can’t sustain long drives and are next to last in the league in total offense doesn’t do the defense any favors. No matter how good your defense is, it’s no good when they’re on the field for long periods of time.

As much as I’d like to back the home dog here, I just can’t find a way to do it. If there’s any value in this game from a wagering standpoint it’s looking at the total. You have two of the better defenses in the league, one average offense and one anemic offense. I can see the Jets defense putting forth a max effort tonight, and while everyone knows that Rex Ryan is gone at the end of the season, the players will still play for him. I see this one being a very defensive ball game, and Miami will be able to put up some points at times. I just don’t trust Geno Smith and the Jets offense to convert in the red zone, as they’ve settled for field goals instead of touchdowns more often than not this year. I think the under is a solid play here, and if I had to choose a side, I’d have to lay the points with the Dolphins. You don’t make money laying points on the road in the NFL, but with the Jets you’re not making much money backing them either this season.

Monday NFL Week 13 Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Free Pick: Miami -7, Under 41.5

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Game Prediction: Miami 20 – New York 6

Chad A. Dawkins is a longtime contributing member here at the community. A B-Town resident and a die-hard Boston sports fanatic, Chad is developing a reputation as a sound sports handicapper. He can be found posting winning free picks and handicapping strategies on our forums and on some popular sports betting radio programs.