Free Sunday NFL Week 4 Picks: Lions vs Jets (9/28/14)

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Detroit Lions at New York Jets

Date and Time: Sunday, 9/28/14 at 1:00pm on FOX

Game Line: New York Jets -1.5 (from WagerWeb)

Over/Under: 45

Detroit Lions at New York Jets Sunday NFL Football Analysis: The New York Jets continue to claim that Geno Smith is their franchise quarterback, but he still struggles to prove it. The scrutiny on the second year quarterback intensified following Monday night’s 27-19 home loss to Chicago. Smith’s first pass was an ill advised screen that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown, and despite his 316 passing yards, the offense sputtered in key moments as New York had one touchdown in six trips inside the red zone.  Smith has five turnovers through two games.  Ryan would like to see improvement throwing the ball on first down. Smith is 19 for 34 for 145 yards with a league high four interceptions.  Despite New York being second in the NFL with 472 rushing yards, Smith’s inability to consistently produce manageable distances for second down has contributed to the Jets being held to two or fewer rushing yards on 14 of 32 second down rushing attempts.  The Jets have been stout against the run, allowing 2.8 yards per carry and a league best 55.0 yards per game, but their patchwork secondary has been suspect. New York is one of six teams without an interception and has allowed a 100 yard receiver each of the last two games.  These aren’t numbers you want to rely on with Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford coming to MetLife Stadium.  The duo of Johnson and Golden Tate have given defenses fits on third down, combining to make 18 catches on 23 pass attempts for 316 yards and 16 first downs. The end results the last two weeks, though, 26 points, does leave room for improvement. Johnson’s 165 receiving yards the last two games are only one more than he had in Week 1 against the Giants, but he may be primed for a breakout game. In his last 12 interconference games, Johnson has 84 receptions for 1,531 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s also nine catches shy of 600 and would be the seventh fastest in league history if he reaches the milestone in his 110th game. Detroit’s defense deserved most of the praise in a 19-7 victory last Sunday over Green Bay, limiting a Packers team that torched the Jets for 310 passing yards and 390 overall in Week 2 to 223 total yards.  The combination of Detroit’s big play potential and New York’s complete lack of big play potential make the Jets a hard time to back, even with the small spread at home.

Sunday NFL Week 4 Detroit Lions at New York Jets Free Picks: Detroit Lions +1.5 and under 45.5

Detroit Lions at New York Jets Game Prediction: 27-17 Lions

What to expect in this Week 4 NFL Football match up: The final score of this game won’t be indicative of how close the game actually is.  The Lions won’t get anything going on the ground while the Jets will have some success with Chris Ivory bouncing the ball outside of the Lions stout front four.  The difference in this game will be the big play, Calvin Johnson has all the makings for a big game while Golden Tate will be utilized more in this game than he has through the first three weeks and the Lions will cash in on a few big plays to kick field goals and score a late touchdown to put this game out of reach.

Davis Wagner has been a long time contributer at the Handicapping community and is a major assett to our establishment. He is solid handicapper and has a keen understanding value sports betting. Davis has been avidly posting on the Cappersinfo forums for almost a decade and is one of the most tenured members of this community. Davis is a major contributor and it's safe to say this sit wouldn't be where it is today without him.