Free Sunday Night Football Week 5 Pick: Bengals vs Patriots (10/2/14)

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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

Date and Time: Sunday, 10/2/14 at 8:25pm on NBC

Game Line: Cincinnati Bengals -1 (from 5Dimes)

Over/Under: 46

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots Sunday NFL Football Analysis: The regression of Tom Brady and the New England offense has been well documented this season, leaving many to wonder if the Belichick and Brady era is finally coming to an end. Brady has led the Patriots to three championships under Belichick, though none have come since the 2004 season. Now in his 15th year, Brady appears to be a shell of the future Hall of Famer who led New England to five Super Bowls.  His 79.1 passer rating ranks 29th in the league and he’s completing a career worst 59.1 percent of his passes. He went 14 of 23 for 159 yards with two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and lost a fumble in Monday’s embarrassing 41-14 loss at Kansas City.  To make matters worse for Brady, he was pulled in the fourth quarter and backup Jimmy Garoppolo led a late scoring drive.  The questions will continue to pour in if the New England offense, ranked 29th overall at 298.5 yards per game can’t turn things around. It won’t get any easier against the Bengals, who are 3-0 and allow a league low 11.0 points per game and come to town rested after their bye week.  Cincinnati uses a well balanced offensive attack with quarterback Andy Dalton and a running game led by Giovani Bernard, who ran for tw touchdowns in a 33-7 rout of Tennessee two weeks ago.  Dalton’s 33 victories since he entered the league in 2011 are second to Brady’s 39. Dalton went 20 of 27 for 212 yards as the Bengals beat the Patriots 13-6 at home last season.  Cincinnati is the lone remaining unbeaten in the AFC after going 11-5 last year but losing to San Diego in the wild-card round, remaining without a playoff win since 1990.  Victories over Baltimore and Atlanta to open the season have the Bengals feeling they can compete with the league’s heavyweights, and a win at New England would only further that notion. The Patriots have won 10 consecutive home games, including the playoffs.  For all of Cincinnati’s success to start the season, Dalton has yet to throw a red-zone touchdown pass. The return of receiver Martin Jones could give Dalton another viable target inside the 20.  Jones, who has yet to play because of a foot injury, caught 10 TD passes last season.

Sunday NFL Week 5 Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots Free Picks: New England Patriots +1 and under 46

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots Game Prediction: 23-20 Patriots

What to expect in this Week 5 NFL Football match up: This is one of those games where the whole world wants you to think one thing, and it appears Cincinnati is the only clear play here but we aren’t ready to jump off the Patriots bandwagon just yet.  Past games do not guarantee future results and while these two teams are seemingly headed in completely opposite directions, sportsbooks want you to think the Patriots have no chance in this game.  They haven’t been a home underdog with Brady under center in almost a decade and they will answer their critics with a big win at home in this one.

Davis Wagner has been a long time contributer at the Handicapping community and is a major assett to our establishment. He is solid handicapper and has a keen understanding value sports betting. Davis has been avidly posting on the Cappersinfo forums for almost a decade and is one of the most tenured members of this community. Davis is a major contributor and it's safe to say this sit wouldn't be where it is today without him.