Handicapping the Super Bowl 46 ‘Total’ – Giants vs. Patriots Picks

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And it all comes down to this… There is just one more game to dissect this year in NFL betting action, and here at Cappers Info, we are taking aim at the Super Bowl ‘total’ odds in the clash between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

Super Bowl 46 Matchup: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Date: Sunday, February 5th, 6:30 ET
Location: Lucas Oil Field, Indianapolis, IN
Super Bowl Lines: New England -2.5
Over/Under 55
Super Bowl 46 TV Schedule: NBC

Sometimes the play that has to be made is the one that seems to be the most obvious. The ‘total’ in the Super Bowl immediately came down just a tad from the open of 56 (56.5 at some locations) due to some sharp bettors that likely remember the last time that these two teams met in the Super Bowl. There was a heck of a lot of defense in that game, and if not for 14 points scored in the final three minutes of the clash, it had the potential to be the lowest scoring Super Bowl ever.

However, these two teams were built a heck of a lot differently. This is the first time that we have had two defenses that have been this bad squaring off against one another. The Giants ranked just No. 27 in the game in total defense, while the Patriots were ranked No. 31. Both of those teams in Super Bowl 42 were able to run the football, and this was before QB Eli Manning was known as a truly elite signal caller. He definitely didn’t have a full playbook like he does now to work with, and though both RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are capable, neither one is going to do as much in this one as they did in the Super Bowl four years ago in all likelihood.

The Patriots have made a tremendous routine out of putting gobs of points on the board this year. Now, it is true that the games in which they failed to get into the 30s this year came against some of the best defenses in the league, though we also have to admit that these Giants were able to pull off the feat as well. However, look closer at that first game. The score was 0-0 at halftime. Unbelievable! There were still 44 points scored in the second half, and QB Tom Brady still threw for 342 yards and two TDs.

The Giants have played in some hardnosed playoff games this year, but this offense that they are running up against isn’t that of the Atlanta Falcons or the San Francisco 49ers. This is a lot more like the game that featured 57 points against the Green Bay Packers.

As for New England, it has just been business as usual in the playoffs. The team dropped 45 points on the Denver Broncos in its first playoff game this year, and it followed that up by scoring a very respectable 23 on the Baltimore Ravens. Of course, that was the first game that stayed ‘under’ the ‘total’ that the Patriots played since beating the Kansas City Chiefs 34-3 in the first game that QB Matt Cassel was out of the lineup for the Chiefs. In that stretch, the team has scored at least 31 points in all but one of those games.

This time around, we tend to think that there is a sense of desire there for the Brady Bunch. This is an offense that was told all season long that it was too much in a box. There are no deep threats for the unit. That being said, all that Brady and his band of receivers seem to do every single week is score 30 or more points! In the end, that will be the difference. The Patriots, come hell or high water, are going to get their points, and when they do, the Giants are going to have no choice but to keep up. This ‘total’ is just too low. Expect to see a lot more of the second half from the first time these two teams met, and nothing like the first Super Bowl meeting or the first half of the regular season duel this year.

Super Bowl ‘Total’ Prediction: New England/New York Over 55

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Cappersinfo.com Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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