NFL Free Picks: Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 10/18/10

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The Jacksonville Jaguars will look to avoid a second straight NFL betting defeat at home against a divisional rival when they take on the Tennessee Titans on MNF.

Matchup: Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Date: Monday, October 18th, 8:30 ET
Location: Ever Life Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Game Line: Jacksonville +2.5
Over/Under 45

Titans Notes: The Titans have been a weird team this year from the standpoint that they are just 1-2 at home and are 2-0 on the road. When RB Chris Johnson runs for at least 100 yards on the day, Tennessee is 3-0 SU and ATS. When he doesn't, it is 0-2 SU and ATS. Needless to say, for a man that has already carried the ball a whopping 113 times this year in just five games, Johnson has his work cut out for him once again on Monday Night Football. When QB Vince Young drops back to throw the football, he is usually looking to get the pigskin to either WR Nate Washington or WR Kenny Britt, particularly near the end zone. Young has only thrown for six scores this year, and all but one of those went to one of those two targets. Washington only has 15 receptions for the year for 218 yards, while Britt has just 14 catches for 173 yards, but the Jaguars certainly aren't going to be forgetting about the role that these two play while trying to run down Johnson, or they are going to be setting themselves up to get burned in a bad way. The Titans are really starting to struggle with opposing passing attacks. They are now ranked just No. 27 in the NFL in pass defense at 242.6 yards per game, and they conceded a total of over 800 yards in their L/2 games against the Denver Broncos and the Dallas Cowboys. The defensive line did a great job last week of keeping QB Tony Romo on the run, though. Romo was sacked six times. DE Jason Babin, once a first round draft choice of the Houston Texans, has emerged this year with Tennessee and leads the team with 5.5 sacks.

Jaguars Notes: In very uncharacteristic form, the Jags are playing 'over' game after 'over' game this year. There is plenty to be concerned about on the defensive side of the ball to say the least. Last week, Jacksonville gave up a whopping 26 points to the Buffalo Bills, who have been nothing but fodder for opposing defenses this year. In fact, that marked the fourth straight game in which a foe scored at least 26 points against it. The Jags have put 67 points on the board in the L/2 weeks, but they can't rely on that happening on a regular basis with an offense that really doesn't have too many aerial threats. QB David Garrard really isn't making the most of his chances this year, but he isn't getting burned by it quite yet. Garrard has completed 66.4 percent of his passes, which would easily be a career high if he kept it up for the season, for 789 yards with nine scores and six picks. With just 11 more TDs in his next 11 games, it would be the first time that Garrard threw for 20+ TDs in a season. TE Marcedes Lewis is becoming a terrific threat near the end zone. He only has 192 yards on 16 receptions this year, but five of those 16 snares have come for touchdowns. The offense is paced by the running of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, though. The man that resembles a little bowling ball has carried the ball 102 times this season for just 406 yards and one TD.

The Final Word: The way you beat the Titans is by throwing the ball, and that's not something that Garrard is really prone to doing all that well. Instead, HC Jack Del Rio is going to try to out-physical Tennessee, something that just isn't going to work. The Titans will get the ground game going and will take advantage of a Jacksonville defense that really hasn't run up against a superior ground game yet this year. Johnson will get to the century mark once again on the ground, and once again, the end result won't change.

Free Pro Football Picks: Tennessee -2.5
Prediction: Tennessee 27 – Jacksonville 20

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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