The final team of the year opens up its home schedule on Monday Night Football, and we are set to make our NFL picks for the clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts.
Year To Date Record: 11-9 ATS
Upset Record: 2-8 -$550
Week 4 NFL Matchup: Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date: Monday, October 3rd, 8:30 ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL
NFL Week 4 Lines: Tampa Bay -10.5
Week 4 NFL TV Schedule: ESPN
Colts Notes: It’s already pretty much been proven that the Colts weren’t going anywhere this year with QB Kerry Collins calling the shots. Perhaps they won’t be all that much better with QB Curtis Painter, but at least this is something different that could potentially help out the team, not just now, but in the future as well. Painter came in last week and led Indianapolis in its 23-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers by going 5-of-11 for 60 yards. Those after fantastic numbers to say the least, but at least it was a tad more competent than what the Colts fans have become used to without QB Peyton Manning. Interestingly enough, the ground game was solid last week against Pittsburgh’s stout defense, as it was the best game of the season for RB Joseph Addai. He needs a least another 50-60 yards on the ground to give Painter half of a chance of success.
Buccaneers Notes: There’s a real question about how good the Bucs really are at 2-1 this year. Sure, the only loss came against a Detroit Lions team that might be a whole heck of a lot better than most figured at the outset of the year, but the two wins were both struggles against the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings, both of which might not be all that great. What we do know is that this team is gritty. QB Josh Freeman only has two TDs against four picks, but he has a knack for really playing well down the stretch of games, a quality that most quarterbacks don’t truly have. Defensively, Tampa Bay had its best game last week against the Falcons, and the team has now allowed just a total of 16 points in its last three halves of football after giving up 17 in the first half alone at the Vikes in Week 2.
The Final Word: Neither one of these offenses are particularly scary to us. We know that the Colts are going to try their best to run the ball, but we just don’t know how successful they’re going to be. We’re not about to lay double digits in a game with a team that has played three games separated by a grand total of 13 points. However, we’re not afraid to take the ‘under’.
Week 4 NFL Pick: Tampa Bay/Indianapolis Under 40.5
NFL Football Prediction: Tampa Bay 19 – Indianapolis 13