Last season, the Green Bay Packers were able to take down the Atlanta Falcons in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Now, they return to the Georgia Dome, the scene of the crime, in a huge regular season game in Week 5 on Sunday Night Football.
Year To Date Record: 16-11 ATS
Upset Record: 3-9 -$815
Week 5 NFL Matchup: Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Date: Sunday, October 9th, 8:25 ET
Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
NFL Week 5 Lines: Green Bay -5.5
Week 5 NFL TV Schedule: NBC
Packers Notes: Maybe QB Aaron Rodgers was right when he said that this version of the Packers offense was even better than last year’s version of it. The unit put up 49 points in a romp last week over the Denver Broncos, and Rodgers accounted for six of the seven scores. The only issue that we have with the Packers is that their pass defense hasn’t been all that special. Giving up over 400 passing yards to QB Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints is one thing. Giving up over 400 passing yards to QB Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers is something totally different. This is clearly the toughest game that the Pack have had to date.
Falcons Notes: The Falcons have to be concerned as well, though they have a lot more reason to be worried. Unlike Green Bay, Atlanta isn’t a 4-0 team; it’s 2-2. The Falcons clearly have a stud in the making in WR Julio Jones, who caught 11 balls last week and had over 100 receiving yards. If he, WR Roddy White, and QB Matt Ryan can all ever get on the same page at the same time, look out! The pass defense is also a concern here in the Peach State, though. QB Tarvaris Jackson and the Seattle Seahawks did a slew of damage through the air last Sunday at Qwest Field, and the end result was that the hosts were just a matter of a few yards short of pulling off what would have been a big time upset.
The Final Word: These two teams are a combined 6-2 towards the ‘over’ this year, and they did combine for 69 points in the postseason effort in January. However, this is just too high of a number to ignore. Asking for 54 points on a regular basis is just too much, so we’ll rely on a lower scoring affair in what should be a tough game.
Week 5 NFL Pick: Atlanta/Green Bay Under 53
NFL Football Prediction: Green Bay 27 – Atlanta 23