2013 Sunday Free Week 6 NFL Football Picks Below
Last Week’s (Week Five) NFL Picks Results: 6-6 (50%)
2013 NFL Regular Season NFL Picks Results: 50-48-2 (51%)
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
Date and Time: Sunday 10/6/13 at 1:00pm on FOX
Game Line: Green Bay Packers -2 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The Green Bay Packers suffered a big blow when all-pro line backer Clay Matthews went down with a broken thumb against the Detroit Lions last week. Matthews has been an anchor for a very mediocre defense and his leadership will be missed against the well balanced offensive attack from the Ravens. Green Bay was already 26th in the league against the pass and without Matthews they will have problems slowing down the quick strike attack of Joe Flacco. The Ravens also found the running game they have been missing in recent weeks against Miami last Sunday. Ray Rice had his best game of the season, which really opened things up for WR Torrey Smith. If Ray Rice gets going Baltimore is a totally different team, Flacco doesn’t have to make things happen and is far less prone to turnovers when he limits his attempts under 30. While Flacco should have more time and a better running game, Aaron Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and they’re going to need him to be effective against a Ravens pass rush who is finally coming around. We knew the Ravens defense was not as bad as they looked for the first few weeks and with their new bodies on defense they’re finally starting to come into their own. If Terell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil can work as well together against a weak Green Bay offensive line as they did against Miami this week, there’s no reason they can’t win this game at home. It appears Green Bay has found a running game lately, running for 140 yards against Detroit last week and 182 against Washington the week before but those numbers are deceiving. They had a big lead in both games and tried to sit on the ball to limit their opponent’s chances. Not to mention, Baltimore has a far superior run defense than either of Green Bay’s two previous opponents. The Packers have failed to cover the spread in their last four road games while Baltimore has covered four in a row at home. There’s no reason to think Baltimore can’t win this game on their home field. Baltimore is definitely a team trending upwards, and should find themselves as a favorite to win the AFC North after a solid home win here.
Packers at Ravens Free NFL Pick: Ravens -2 and over 48.5
Packers at Ravens Game Prediction: 27-23 Ravens
What to expect in this week 6 NFL matchup: Without Clay Matthews or a serious running threat the Ravens will tee off on Aaron Rodgers who has a below average offensive front blocking for him. Baltimore’s duel threat offense will keep Green Bay’s defense guessing and without Clay Matthews they should be able to move the ball effectively. If Flacco can win the turnover battle against Aaron Rodgers this will be a big statement win for a team looking to prove they belong back in the playoff picture in 2013.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Date and Time: Sunday 10/10/13 at 1:00pm on CBS
Game Line: New York Jets -2 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The Pittsburgh Steelers are 0-4 and 0-4 against the spread for the first time in 45 years, so good news is hard to come by if you’re a Steelers fan. If they could just get some level of production from their running game, rookie Le’Veon Bell in particular, Ben Roethlisberger might have more hope in play action but there has been no sign of hope so far this season and there’s no reason to think it will start against the Jets run defense this week. With their recent running struggles in mind, the Steelers are making changes on their offensive line by sending Mike Adams to the bench and splitting the left tackle responsibilities between Kelvin Beachum and Levi Brown. While this timeshare on Roethlisberger’s blindside might be effective long term, it’s not something you want to be implementing against a Jets defensive front that is one of the best in the league. Meanwhile, the Jets are 4-1 against the spread this year and feeling good about themselves after a huge win in Atlanta on Monday Night Football last week. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith is coming off his best performance, connecting on 16 of 20 passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Steelers defense hasn’t forced a turnover all year, which should bode well for the rookie quarterback. If he can limit his turnovers the Jets should win this game without much issue. The Jets defense also ranks top five in the league both overall and against the run. It is clear odds makers are not sold on the Jets early success, making them only a small favorite at home against an offense with problems all over the field. The Steelers do have a big advantage at quarterback; Ben Roethlisberger has been there and done that but it is hard to have any faith in their offense against a defense as stout as the Jets. They will hope to alleviate the running game with WR Antonio Brown and TE Heath Miller, who both have excellent numbers because the Steelers have found themselves coming from behind for much of the season. The Antonio Brown vs Antonio Cromartie match up will be a huge factor in determining who wins what should be a very tight low scoring game. While this is not what we would have expected before the season, the Jets are the better team here. We will give the benefit of the doubt to Geno Smith and hope he is ready for two consecutive high-end performances.
Steelers at Jets Free NFL Pick: Jets -2 and under 41
Steelers at Jets Game Prediction: 17-13 Jets
What to expect in this week 6 NFL matchup: This should be a hard hitting defensive struggle, both defenses are very capable of shutting down the oppositions running game and that will leave it up to the quarterback play. Geno Smith has improved every week and has learned that he can’t turn the ball over if his team is going to have any hope of winning. While the Jets are not an elite team by any means, the Steelers won’t start running the ball effectively against such a solid run defense and turning them one dimensional will be the difference for the Jets. The holes in Pittsburgh’s offensive line will be exposed by Rex Ryan’s defense and they will find a way to squeak out a close, defensive battle.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Date and Time: Sunday 10/10/13 at 1:00pm on CBS
Game Line: Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The 3-2 Cincinnati Bengals are heading into Buffalo after their biggest win of the season against the Patriots, where they held Tom Brady without a passing touchdown for the first time 5 seasons. They’re leading their division and looking to make the playoffs for the third year in a row, things are definitely trending upwards in Cincinnati. They’ve now beaten Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisburger this year and held them to a combined 63.2 QB rating. They’ve been much better at home than on the road and will need to continue to play to their strengths of they’re going to win a road game against a Buffalo team that always seems to be in close games. The Bills have also been a surprise story, 2-3 with wins over Baltimore and Carolina and losing very close games against the Jets and Patriots. They were also heading down the field to take the lead against Cleveland last week behind rookie QB EJ Manuel when he tore his LCL, which not only cost his team the game but he will miss 4-6 weeks. This will give Thad Lewis the start, the second of his career. If Buffalo can limit the RB tandem of Giovanni Bernard and Benjarvus Green-Ellis and force QB Andy Dalton to throw the ball around they should force a few turnovers and have a better chance against a mediocre passing game. Andy Dalton has shown he is not an elite QB and putting the ball in his hands down the stretch of a close game is an advantage for the defense. The quarterback change along with the high public perception of the Bengals has caused this line to rise steadily from 6.5 up to 8.5 and rising. We don’t think there’s much of a difference in skill between EJ Manuel and Thad Lewis to this point Manuel hasn’t shown he is anything special and if Lewis can limit turnovers the way Manuel couldn’t, he should have his team in a position to compete in this game. As running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson get healthy the Bills will get better offensively and rely less on their young and inexperienced quarterbacks. The combination of Buffalo’s long week to prepare, their bend but don’t break defense, higher turnover margin, and ability to compete in every game plus this line movement and everyone questioning Thad Lewis at quarterback has us really liking the home dog of more than 7 in this spot.
Bengals at Bills Free NFL Pick: Bills +8.5 and over 41
Bengals at Bills Game Prediction: 27-23 Bengals
What to expect in this week 6 NFL matchup: The Bills running game will see some success in this game, CJ Spiller is due for a decent performance and Fred Jackson has proven he can handle his share of the load as well, which they will need to keep QB Thad Lewis from doing too much. If Andy Dalton continues to struggle to find star receiver AJ Green, Buffalo should stay in this game from start to finish. Buffalo has a way of keeping games like this close, especially at home, and they will control the ball enough to stay within the number here.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date and Time: Sunday 10/10/13 at 1:00pm on FOX
Game Line: Philadelphia Eagles pk (from 5Dimes)
Preview: Coming off their bye week after a 13-10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hoping rookie QB Mike Glennon will show some improvement and provide a lift for one of the leagues worst offenses. Glennon had two fourth quarter interceptions and a fumble in his first career start and he is going to have to do much better if they’re going to score enough points to compete with the Eagles. Tampa Bay is 31st in the league in scoring and total yards, but they’re facing a defense that is 30th in the league. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s defense ranks in the top 10 while Philadelphia’s offense is top 5. This game is certainly a match up of strengths against weaknesses and should be a very interesting game to watch in week 6. Philadelphia might be without starting QB Mike Vick who left last weeks game against the Giants but they have a ton of faith in second string QB Nick Foles, who could take over the starting job if he can capitalize on his opportunity this week. Vick has been throwing and jogging this week but hasn’t practiced with the team and it is unsure if he will play Sunday. Though Vick certainly has more mobility, Foles has done far better with ball control and red zone efficiency, two statistics that coach Chip Kelly’s offense needs to be effective if they’re going to be successful. The biggest key to this game is going to be the battle of the running backs LeSean McCoy and Doug Martin. Tampa Bay will need Doug Martin to take some of the load off of a rookie quarterback and also to keep the Eagles quick tempo offense off the field. Philadelphia will need McCoy because Tampa Bay has one of the league’s best secondary’s led by Darelle Revis, who will probably shut WR DeSean Jackson down. These two teams played in December of last year, a game which Philadelphia won 23-21 and we think Philadelphia has gotten better and Tampa Bay has gotten worse since, it’s very hard to bet on Tampa Bay the way their offense is looking right now, and as bad as Philadelphia’s defense is this should be just the game they need to show they’re improving.
Eagles at Buccaneers Free NFL Pick: Eagles pk and under 45.5
Eagles at Buccaneers Game Prediction: 27-17 Eagles
What to expect in this week 6 NFL matchup: Two teams with question marks at quarterback will rely heavily on the running game to move the ball. Doug Martin will keep Philadelphia’s offensive opportunities limited and LeSean McCoy will move the chains and take some of the stress off QB Nick Foles. As the game comes down the stretch we give the advantage to Philadelphia behind Foles before Tampa Bay behind Glennon, who will undoubtedly turn the ball over a few times and assure his team stays win less.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Date and Time: Sunday 10/10/13 at 4:25 on Fox
Game Line: New Orleans Saints +2.5 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The New Orleans travel to Foxboro in the NFL’s game of the week in week six. Not enough is being made of the job Rob Ryan has done with the undefeated Saint’s defensive unit this season. They’ve gone from one of the worst to one of the best defensive teams in the league and are allowing just 14.6 points per game this season. Tom Brady is 0-3 in his NFL career against Drew Brees, who is facing New England for the first time as a member of the Saints. One of the biggest questions going into this game is whether the addition of TE Rob Gronkowski will fix the problems New England has had on offense so far this season, it has been well documented that Brady is missing a go to target, but whether or not Gronkowski is going to be the answer in his first game after injury will be a huge question mark. The other TE in this game, Jimmy Graham, is far less debatable. He has not only been the best tight end in the NFL, he has been one of the top receivers. He is tied for second with 37 catches and six touchdowns through just five games and is clearly Brees’ go-to target, especially in the redzone. The Patriots offense is in uncharted waters at 19 points per game and a mere 343 yards per game, both bottom half in the league. These are two of the league’s top five defenses, with two offenses who are among the best at not turning the ball over and creating timely turnovers. The difference has been New England’s inability to convert in the redzone, kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, which they’re hoping Gronkowski will alleviate. While this game should be very close, we are really questioning the total of 50. Everyone is assuming these are the same Saints and Patriots offensive powerhouse teams, but five games is a large enough sample size to convince us that these are two solid defenses who have turned the corner this year. If you strictly look at the numbers these two teams have put up offensively this year this game should stay well under the total and playing outside at Foxboro should only help this game stay low scoring.
Saints at Patriots Free NFL Pick: Saints +2.5 and under 50
Saints at Patriots Game Prediction: 24-19 Saints
What to expect in this week 6 NFL matchup: Two of the best defensive coaches in the league will have schemes that will help shut down both opposing tight ends. Neither team will get their running attack going with any degree of success and while neither QB will have many turnovers, there will be plenty of drives that stall and pin the opposing offense deep in their own territory and long drives will be unsuccessful for both offenses. As long as there isn’t any special teams or defensive touchdowns this game will stay well under the total.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Date and Time: Sunday 10/10/13 at 8:30pm on NBC
Game Line: Dallas Cowboys -5.5 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: Dallas quarterback Tony Romo hurt us last week when he went blow for blow with Denver’s Peyton Manning but fell just short of a miracle upset with in a 51-48 shootout loss last Sunday. Romo racked up a franchise record 506 yards and career high 5 touchdown passes, but found a way to throw the interception that ended up costing his team the game late in the fourth quarter. They need to rebound quickly to avoid their third straight loss to Washington who is hoping a bye week will help QB Robert Griffin III return to form. Regardless of which version of RGIII shows up to this game, the Cowboys are going to need to improve defensively if they’re going to win the NFC East after losing 3 straight and giving up over 400 yards per game over that stretch. Fortunately for them, the Redskins offense has not been the same this year without an effective passing game and Griffin looking like a shell of what he was last year. If the bye week helped the way Griffin said it did, this game will be a shootout. Both offenses have averaged over 375 yards of offense while allowing over 400 per game, both league highs. Redskins running back Alfred Morris looks good to go after leaving with a rib injury against Oakland, which will be a lot of help to burn the clock, keep Tony Romo off the field. However, if Washington can’t find a way to slow down WR Dez Bryant and TE Dallas Clark it is going to be a long game for the Redskins, whose offense is not nearly as potent. Neither of these teams have shown any hope stopping an opposing offense and we’re going to assume the bye week helped Griffin who will come into this intense rivalry game looking more like the 2012 version. It’s hard to put a finger on which of these teams is going to win this game, both are prone to giving up huge plays and making big mistakes in the fourth quarter but one thing that is for sure is these are two of the league’s worst defenses and there’s going to be little punting going on, especially late in the game. An untimely turnover or two, which shouldn’t be too much to ask, will be all this game needs to go well over the total.
Redskins at Cowboys Free NFL Pick: Cowboys -5.5 and over 53
Redskins at Cowboys Game Prediction: 34-28 Cowboys
What to expect in this week 6 NFL matchup: Any drive that doesn’t end in a turnover will end in points in this game. A punt will be a very hard thing to come by. Any major offensive weapon on either team will find success as both quarterbacks will use their tight ends, running game, and receivers effectively. Alfred Morris will have his best game of the season against a Cowboys defense that will be worried about stopping WR Pierre Garcon and keeping RGIII contained in the pocket. Tony Romo will get Miles Austin back and sling the ball all over the Redskins defense, but this week his late game turnovers won’t cost his team the victory.