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2013 Sunday Free Week 7 NFL Football Picks Below
Last Week’s (Week Six) NFL Picks Results: 7-5 (58%)
2013 NFL Regular Season NFL Picks Results: 57-53-2 (51%)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Date and Time: Sunday 10/20/13 at 1:00pm on FOX
Game Line: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The Cowboys and Eagles are facing off to determine who will be the early season first place team, and team to beat in the NFC East. The Eagles offense is still putting up big numbers to the tune of 28 points and 450 yards per game and they lead the NFL in rushing averaging 178 yards per game. Michael Vick missed last weeks game and he is questionable again this week but backup quarterback Nick Foles has proven he can lead this team just as well, if not better by limiting the turnovers. They will try to continue to spread it around, with LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper all catching their fair share of passes and touchdowns regardless of who is leading the offense. Defensively, the Eagles are going to play an extremely one dimensional passing attack with Dallas. The Cowboys are playing solid football but it hasn’t given them the results in the win column they’ve hoped for. Their offense is averaging 30 points per game, second best in the NFL, and Tony Romo has looked outstanding completing 70% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. DeMarco Murry was controlling the Cowboys rushing attack all by himself but he was injured last week and is expected to miss 3-6 weeks, leaving the rushing duties to Joseph Randle, a rookie who looked decent in relief of Murray last week. The Cowboys are also entering this game without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Ware, who will also miss extended time with an injury. While neither of these teams are among the NFL’s elite it is nice to see them face off in a meaningful game for a change. The big advantage the Eagles offense has here is in the running game. They are the best in the NFL, while Dallas is only middle of the pack and will have to go without their starting RB. If the Eagles can control the clock with the running game and keep Romo off the field they should find some success. Neither team has lit it up against the spread and neither will be able to stop the other offensively in what should be a shootout, we will take the home team that is coming in more healthy, with more offensive weapons to play with.
Cowboys at Eagles Free NFL Pick: Eagles -2.5 and over 54.5
Cowboys at Eagles Game Prediction: 31-26 Eagles
What to expect in this week 7 NFL matchup: Whether it is Nick Foles or Michael Vick at quarterback for Philadelphia, they will run the ball a ton with LeSean McCoy against a defense that struggles against the run and will be without their star defensive lineman. This should set up the play action pass and the fast tempo should force the Cowboys secondary to make a few mistakes. Dallas shouldn’t have any troubles moving the ball offensively either, but the injury to DeMarco Murray will be too much, and force them to be too one dimensional to win a divisional game on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Date and Time: Sunday 10/20/13 at 1:00pm on FOX
Game Line: Atlanta Falcons -7 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The Atlanta Falcons suffered the worst injury in the league this season when star wide receiver Julio Jones went down for the season with a foot injury. Meanwhile, they have plenty of other injury concerns, fellow receiver Roddy White is questionable with hamstring and ankle problems and their big off season pick up RB Stephen Jackson has missed three straight games. Thankfully, they are coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for these losses when they take on divisional foe in Tampa Bay. If Atlanta is going to be successful they’re going to need Roddy White to be far more effective, he has been a non-factor for the Falcons so far in 2013 and veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez is going to have to stay healthy and continue producing. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are winless, losing three games by 3 points or fewer. They’re relying on rookie quarterback Mike Glennon making his second start. He played well for three quarters against Philadelphia last week, trailing 21-20 after three quarters before letting the Eagles pull away. If they are going to have a chance in this game they’re going to need a big performance from RB Doug Martin, something they haven’t gotten the last three weeks. He has been a big let down and if this team is going to start winning games with Glennon at the helm he is going to have to be more effective. Atlanta allows less than 100 yards per game on the ground so this won’t be an easy task. Without running the ball successfully Tampa doesn’t have the weapons on the outside to score enough to keep up with the Falcons. Regardless of who Matt Ryan is throwing the ball to, they’re going to find their way down the field against a Bucs defense that has been surprisingly beatable. Tampa Bay is giving up 250 yards per game through the air, a much higher average than most anticipated with their strong secondary. The Buccaneers are weakest in the linebacking core, which is the only area of the field Matt Ryan should be able to exploit with Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas.
Buccaneers at Falcons Free NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons -7 and under 43
Buccaneers at Falcons Game Prediction: 24-14 Falcons
What to expect in this week 7 NFL matchup: Mike Glennon looks more like a rookie than he did in his first start. The Falcons have a bye week to prepare their famous exotic blitz packages and scheme changes to beat the young quarterback to force some turnovers and end drives quickly on third down. Offensively, the big play potential for Atlanta is gone, but they should find success dink-and-dunking down the field with quick short passes. If Stephen Jackson returns as scheduled he will make a huge difference reducing the pressure on Matt Ryan and the Falcons win a game they have to have at home.
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins
Date and Time: Sunday 10/20/13 at 1:00pm on FOX
Game Line: Washington Redskins -1 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The Washington Redskins have been one of the biggest letdown teams in the league this season. They’re sitting at 1-4 and hoping to avoid going 0-3 at home for the first time in 15 years. They’ve found a way to average 400 yards per game, fourth in the league, while only scoring 21 points, ranking 20th. Combine that with one of the leagues worst defenses and a quarterback in a sophomore or post injury slump and you’ve got a recipe for disaster in the nation’s capital. On top of that, they’re last in the league in special teams, which could play a key factor against Devin Hester and the Chicago special teams that ranks among the best in the league. Robert Griffith III has really been struggling, whether it be the knee injury or opposing defenses figuring him out, he has to play better if this team is going to get back in the playoff picture in the NFC East. His 58% completion percentage and 6/5 touchdown to turnover ratio are among the worst in the NFL. However, the Redskins have found a way to win four straight against Chicago and DeAngelo Hall loves to play against Jay Cutler, with four picks in those four games. Cutler has been more effective this year with the emergence of WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Martellus Bennett but he is still prone to a costly interception with six through six games. They should have no problem moving the ball against the Washington secondary if Cutler can keep the turnovers to a minimum. The Bears defensive front has been anything but Bears like through six games. They’re 30th in the league in sacks and lost two big tackles in Henry Melton and Nate Collins to season ending injuries. They gave up 100 yards and a touchdown to Brandon Jacobs and the Giants last week. This bodes well for a run heavy Washington offense. Both teams will be getting their share of points in this contest, where both teams have gone OVER the total frequently already this season.
Bears at Redskins Free NFL Picks: Redskins -1 and over 50
Bears at Redskins Game Prediction: 31-27 Redskins
What to expect in this week 7 NFL matchup: Defense will be a hard thing to come by in this contest. Washington will pound the ball with success against a beat up Bears defensive front, which will help limit the turnovers from Griffith and keep their bad defense off the field. Assuming Jay Cutler doesn’t go turnover happy, the Bears will go pass happy against a bottom tier passing defense and Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery will both have big games and put up points too, but in a battle of a pass happy road team and a run happy home team we will take the Redskins ice the game in the fourth quarter.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Date and Time: Sunday 10/10/13 at 1:00pm on CBS
Game Line: San Diego Chargers -7.5 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: When the San Diego Chargers travel East to play at Jacksonville this week we will see two of the leagues premiere young emerging wide receivers. Rookie Keenan Allen for the Chargers has gone over 100 yards two games in a row with a touchdown and great looking hands over the middle and Jacksonville’s Justin Blackmon is finally on the field after a suspension and had 14 catches for 190 yards against the Denver defense last week. As far as 0-7 teams go, Jacksonville has played much better in their last two games with Blackmon back and they’re coming home to face a Chargers team that just played on Monday Night Football in a big win against Indianapolis. These are two of the leagues worst defenses in terms of yards, both over 380 so far this season. The difference in this game is going to be Jacksonville’s total lack of running game, which will be what plagues them all season long. Maurice Jones-Drew is a shell of him former self and appears to have checked out both mentally and physically and you just can’t rely on Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert to win games in the NFL. Meanwhile, San Diego RB Ryan Matthews went over 100 yards for the first time this season on Monday, and looked the best he has since coming into the league. Their running game will control the clock and be effective, but the Jaguars will score on a few big plays and if Jones-Drew decided to come to the party offensively this team could score enough to compete at home here. The Chargers run defense is just average in the league, and an effective run game is as much motivation as anything else for someone in Jones-Drew who has proven they can be a top back in the league. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has owned Jacksonville since coming into the league and there’s no reason that won’t continue here, but Jacksonville’s offense has a new found big play potential and they should find the endzone a few times to keep this game within the number in a higher scoring game that people think.
Chargers at Jaguars Free NFL Picks: Jaguars +7.5 and over 45
Chargers at Jaguars Game Prediction: 29-24 Chargers
What to expect in this week 7 NFL matchup: The Chargers will have no problem running the ball, like any other team that faces the Jacksonville run defense. Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead will look like elite NFL backs and Philip Rivers will manage the game well completing a high percentage of short range passes. The ball possession offense form the Chargers won’t go crazy against the Jacksonville defense. Offensively, the Jaguars will be boom or bust, scoring on big plays and long runs, or punting quickly. They will find enough big plays and enough of a running game to keep this one close with the Chargers in a let down spot, traveling, on a short week.
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
Date and Time: Sunday 10/10/13 at 4:05 on Fox
Game Line: San Francisco 49ers -4 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: The San Francisco 49ers have found their running game lately, and that’s bad news for opposing defenses. After struggling to get going early in the season the 49ers have won three in a row while rushing for over 180 yards per game in those wins. They are one of the best ball possession offenses in the NFL and they showed that in the fourth quarter against the Cardinals last week with a 9 minute touchdown drive to put the game away. Frank Gore is carrying a lot of the load, 5.7 yards per carry on 25 rushes last week, which is taking a lot of stress from QB Colin Kaepernick who has finally got it going with the run game as well. They’ve been relying heavily on two guys, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin in the passing game but Mario Manningham practiced this week for the first time this season and would be a huge addition to the San Francisco offense if he plays. Defensively, the Titans have a group that matches the 49ers in every statistical category, and they have the advantage of being at home for this one, but if they’re going to win they’re going to have to do better offensively. Without QB Jake Locker the Titans can’t get anything going through the passing game. The Titans started 3-0 because they didn’t turn the ball over but since Locker went down and Ryan Fitzpatrick started they’re 0-2 with five turnovers in those two losses. Their offensive line play is solid but they have the worst receiving core in the league, led by Nate Washington and Kendal Wright. Without reliable options Fitzpatrick has no hope of being successful, which means Chris Johnson is going to need play a lot better. He is averaging a mere 3 yards per carry and hasn’t had the big breakout run yet this season with zero touchdowns through six games. He looks just as unmotivated and sluggish as Maurice Jones-Drew and it is really hurting his team who has the defense and the offensive line to be a good team as they showed earlier this season. The Titans have been covering machines so far this season, and this number has us scratching our heads, we assumed the 49ers would be in the -6.5 neighborhood, and they’re being bet heavily already this week. This one smells like a trap and definitely has the makings of a low scoring grinder. We will call Vegas’ bluff and take the home dog in a slow paced, grind it out, run heavy, low scoring game.
49ers at Titans Free NFL Pick: Titans +4 and under 40
49ers at Titans Game Prediction: 19-17 49ers
What to expect in this week 7 NFL matchup: Both teams will be run heavy throughout the game, and both run defenses have been stout this season. There will be plenty of punting, field position battling, field goals and hard hits. Chris Johnson will have his first 100 yard game this season but will carry the ball 20+ times and the clock will be running constantly while Frank Gore gets his 20+ carries as well. Fitz Patrick will throw his team a few costly interceptions but the Titans defense will step up and hold San Francisco to field goals to keep this game low scoring and keep themselves within the number.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
Date and Time: Sunday 10/20/13 at 8:30pm on NBC
Game Line: Denver Broncos -6 (from 5Dimes)
Preview: Lastly, the game that just can’t get enough coverage on ESPN , Peyton Manning’s triumphant return to Indianapolis to take on “new guy” Andrew Luck and the Colts. This game has no shortage of story lines, the Colts are honoring Peyton Manning before the game and their owner has already had a few quotes about Peyton’s time in Indianapolis that are making headlines. The Colts will be the biggest challenge the Denver offense has faced so far this season, the Colts rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense and scoring defense. They’re also going to be without starting right tackle Orlando Franklin with a knee injury, adding to their offensive line problems. For the Colts offense, this is the biggest game of the year for Andrew Luck. He wants to step up and compete and prove that he is the new horse in Indianapolis and is going to continue their 20 year run as a franchise. He should be successful against a Denver pass defense that really needs to get healthy before they’re going to be effective. As a unit they allow over 400 yards per game, 335 through the air. Assuming Denver scores early, Indianapolis will be playing from behind and passing the ball often but they will stay in this game. This line has a lot of people really liking Denver, especially after seeing Indianapolis struggle offensively on Monday Night Football but a team is never as good or as bad as their last game. This is a great matchup for Indianapolis, their defensive secondary is good and their run defense is weak, but Denver doesn’t run the ball. Offensively, the Colts like to throw it around, and defensively the Broncos shut down the run but can’t stop the pass. Indianapolis should get up for this game as a team and they’re going to surprise a lot of people when they hold the Denver offense under 30 and compete right down to the last play of the game. We see this one ending up a lot like the Dallas game for Denver, a last second Peyton Manning drive for a game winning field goal, except this game will only see about half the number of total points.
Broncos at Colts Free NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts +6 and under 55.5
Broncos at Colts Game Prediction:
What to expect in this week 7 NFL matchup: The Colts defense will shock America with their success matching up man to man and competing with Peyton Manning and his band of pass catchers. They will be held under 35 points for the first time this season and will turn to RB Knowshon Moreno more than any game so far in 2013. Andrew Luck will be throwing the ball early and often, with all of the motivation a tandem can have, he and WR Reggie Wayne will connect for a few big scores and this game will be a close one throughout. Peyton will drive his team down late in the fourth quarter to give his team the win and the media will love every second of it.