Wiseguy Looks – Sharp Week 14 Free NFL Picks For 12/11/11

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Here are a few plays that I hear some sharps are eyeing up for Sunday.  Meanwhile, the public bettors will first overlook these games (or go the other way if they decide to play them).  The majority of the betting public will then spend the entire second half of the early games deciding on who is worse; Caleb Hanie or Tim Tebow (while there are better things to focus on today).  And finally, the public will be looking for the Giants to bail them out on Sunday night with the points. The sharper bettors have a different plan in mind.  Anyway, keep an eye on these anti-public/anti-hype & sharper NFL action plays for Sunday.

Notice; You can see all my plays on the homepage of Cappersinfo.com and on the Cappersinfo forums (Username: Louie).

Let’s start with this trap…

(1) New Orleans Saints -3.5 @ Tennessee Titans +3.5

Take a good look at Tennessee +3.5 at home vs. New Orleans here.

Why, you ask?

First of all, the Saints are hot after a few big wins on primetime; which means the public will overreact and lean toward them as a road-favorite on Sunday (but New Orleans has been playing at home during their stretch). Now, they travel to Tennessee who returns home rejuvenated after a much needed win (that they quietly won in Buffalo). Look for a letdown from the Saints here while veteran Hasselback and the rejuvenated C. Johnson come to play (in big game with playoff implications) for the Titans. Keep a close eye on the Titans tomorrow. They will look like the aggressors in this one (while the Saints try to use more ground attack in effort to avoid injuries).  Don’t forget what Hasselbeck did to the Saints in Wild Card Weekend last season in the playoffs. 

Tennessee will play very inspired on Sunday as this is a very big home game for the Titans.

My NFL Pick (or Opinion):
Tennessee Titans +3.5
Note:
Keep an eye on this line.  Perhaps wait until kickoff as the public may drive this up to 4.

(2) New York Giants +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys -4.5

Dallas Cowboys are now a 4.5 point favorite against the Giants (after opening at 3 early in the week).

Sharps are looking at Dallas and have already hit it HARD… Why? First, this is a dog that the majority of public bettors will be on. Early this week, I saw an ESPN SportsNation pool said that 65% of the public thinks the Giants will WIN the game (not just cover… but win) on Sunday. Ask yourself, why this line is Dallas -4.5 then if the public loves the Giants? Because the wiseguys hit Dallas at -3 early in the week and moved the line (while the public money will even things out).

Some Vegas skeptics might say the sharps (and pro bettors) are manipulating the line in order to get NYG at a better number on gameday. If that were the case, I would assume it would have dropped back to down 4 or 3.5 already.

But, this is another example of public overreaction as a result of Giants keeping it close against the Packers last week. Meanwhile, the public still doesn’t believe in the Cowboys after a tough road loss against and underrated Arizona defense (and the Boys will be out to prove a point). Dallas will come to play on Sunday night and will likely put the Giants right in their place (watching the playoffs).  Do not look at the Giants +4.5 as a generous line; it looks like “Trap City” to me.

The sharps jumped all over Dallas when the line was 3 (driving up to 4.5). Those that had the foresight to hit Dallas at -3 early this week (I got it at 3.5) can play the middle with NYG +4.5 (or even 5 by gametime. I expect this line to stay at 4.5 to let the sucker bettors jump all over the Giants. Really guys… don’t be surprised to see Romo and Boys to put away the depleted Giants tomorrow once and for all in a good ol’ fashioned Dallas beat down (sorry Giants fans).

My NFL Pick (or Opinion):
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (or even 4.5) – Dallas 34 / Giants: 20
Note:
Got them at 3.5, but still like Dallas to put it on the Giants tomorrow night.

(3) Indianapolis Colts +17.5 @ Baltimore Ravens -17.5

(seen this line anywhere from 16 to 18 at a bunch of different books…LV Consensus has it at 17 right now)

Teaser anyone?

Did you think I meant teasing Baltimore down to 10 or 10.5? If you did, you need to read this now…

The first thing that always comes to a sucker bettors’ mind when I say teaser (on a game like this), is teasing the favorites down (instead of teasing the dogs up). This is what makes teaser bets sucker bets in all sports, when the truth is that bookmakers can be abused with teasers (when teasing NFL dogs up instead of the other way around).

How about this; I was able to get Indy +25 in a teaser.

Remember: This Indy team lost by 7 vs the Pats (IN FOXBORO) against extremely explosive offense and improved defense in New England last Sunday. Don’t forget; they looked much better with Orlovsky at the helm (throwing for over 300 yards, with 2 TDs and one pick). That stat line for an Indy QB tomorrow will ensure a cover of 23.5 or more points; especially against Batltimore.

Do you think the Ravens will cover 25 here (or even 17 for that matter)? Do you know what Baltimore’s average margin of victory over the last five wins is? It’s 7.4 points. Hell, can the Ravens offense even score 24 against anyone lately?

This is a game that the public will ignore. This your is a typical “I am staying away from this one” type public bettor game (especially with a huge slate at 1pm); that is unless some bozo bettor decides that…

1. Baltimore is a good in a parlay, or;
2. it’s a good idea to lay $300 to win a whopping $20 on a Ravens ML play, or;
3. to tease the Ravens down to 10.5…at which point you still won’t be matching their average margin of victory over their past five wins (again, 7.4 points).

If you are looking for a play to tease, take Indy at +24 or higher and match them up with someone else…

Personally, I teased the Colts with San Diego -1; who I believe will come on at the end of the year as they always do (against the lowly Bills). I’d tell you more about that one, but I am out of time.

My NFL Pick (or Opinion):
Find Someone To Tease Indy +24.5 (or more) in a 7 point tease  (-120 at SportBet)
Note:
Options To Pair the Colts With; Eagles +10, Pats -1, Chargers -1 (my pick), or Vikings +17

Enjoy! Thanks For Reading!

Lou Palumbo is the founder and part owner of the Cappersinfo.com Sports Handicapping Community. He's been writing and posting free picks and sports handicapping strategies on the Cappersinfo forums and website for 15 years now. He enjoys handicapping just as much as he did from the very first day he built the original Cappersinfo website.

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