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Here is the third and final part of our MLB baseball betting guide and mlb betting systems for 2011. In this part we will take a look at the numbers behind the bold and controversial Strategy #2, which advises you to bet on baseball according to how the home plate umpire calls the game. I will tear the cover off a subject that is taboo in MLB. How the transparency in how the home plate umpire calls a game translates into the higher likelihood of a particular side or total winning. That’s right I said side and total not just the total.

When I first started studying this last year I figured that I would find some umpires who had a big strike zone and thus their games were lower scoring and vice versa with a smaller strike zone and higher scoring games. I did find this to be true and the numbers were compelling, but what I was shocked to find was that there were umpires who had such a high percentage of home team wins and that it was far above the MLB average which made it significant. I found that the term “home team advantage” is something some umpires apply more then others.

Let me throw out a few examples of some of the umpires who seem to have this built in “bias” for the home team. Tim McClelland who is a veteran umpire since 1999 when behind home plate last year saw the home team go 28-5 overall. Since 2005 the home team is 111-68 or .620 when McClelland is behind the plate. Mike Muchlinski only umpires sparingly but jump on the home team when he is behind the plate. They are 35-15 the last 5 years which is a staggering .700. Alfonso Marquez another “friend” to the home team in the last 3 years has seen the home team go 65-36 or .644 when he is behind the plate. Kerwin Danley had a record of 26-8 for the home team last year including an amazing 20-2 when the home team was the favorite.

These figures are well above the average home team record in MLB which in 2010 was .559. In 2009 it was .548 and in 2008 it was .556. These umpires are having home teams win in some cases as much as 25% more often which is not only staggering but extremely profitable when we are able to determine if they are behind the plate. Here are a few more whose numbers aren’t as dramatic but whose record over time is. Ted Barrett had a 25-10 record for the home team in 2010 when behind the plate and over the last 8 years the home team wins at a .592 clip when he is the home plate umpire. Mark Carlson is another veteran umpire who in his 12 years behind the plate never had one single season that the road team won more games then the home team. In fact the home team wins .593 when Carlson is behind the plate.

Let’s also take a look at how an umpire calls balls and strikes also relates to the outcome of the total runs scored in a game. This is where I thought I would find all kinds of trends but there were only a few. The ones I did find however are extremely significant. Angel Campos is an umpire who must have one very small strike zone. He calls on average less strikes then any other umpire in MLB and over the last 4 years in games when he is behind home plate the over comes in 61% of the time. Jim Reynolds is another umpire with a small strike zone and no friend to pitchers. The last 4 years the over has cashed in to the tune of 78-45 or 63.4% of the time when he is behind the plate.

Doug Eddings might have one of the largest strike zones of any umpire in MLB as evidenced by his record over the past 12 years of 60.6% of his games behind home plate going under the total. James Hoye is another umpire good for an under outcome, the past two years the under is 50-22 or 69.4% when he is home plate umpire. Bill Miller is another great under umpire seeing the under cash in 84-51 or 62.2% of the time the past 4 years when he is the home plate umpire. I think what makes some of these “under” umpires results even more impressive are that some of those under outcomes came during the steroids era. The numbers won’t be completed for a few years but it appears to me batters are hitting less home runs the past couple of years and I think there is a direct link to the crack down on steroids and HGH. This makes an under umpire even more profitable in a steroids/HGH free environment.

Are all of these men cheaters or being dishonest? Of course they aren’t. Are they necessarily bad at their jobs? Maybe they are and maybe they just see things a little differently then the majority. Does that make them wrong, I don’t think so but it does create an opportunity to capitalize on a particular tendency they have. The key is being able to find the information which is so meaningful. There are several websites that publish the listed home plate umpires and also compile their records dating back to the 90’s. It is no accident that MLB tries to make this information very difficult to find for game 1 of a series, and they would never admit in a million years that certain umpires have any sort of bias whatsoever. However I think you’ll agree the numbers tell a different story.

Now I wouldn’t write down every umpire I listed and bet according to their tendencies, however I would be checking all of them against this year’s records to see if history will once again repeat itself. I would be also looking for certain situations to use these tendencies for example knowing you have a good under umpire combined with two teams sending their ace to the mound might be a great spot to play the under. Conversely knowing you have a good over umpire and two less then top pitchers on the mound might be a prime spot to bet the over. Call it what you will, but I’m a numbers guy and the numbers prove a very interesting system on how to make money consistently betting legally on MLB using primarily strategy #2. We at Cappersinfo.com are always striving to bring you the most up to date and innovative wagering strategies on all sports. We hope you have enjoyed this three part guide on baseball betting advice. Good luck this year and may all the walk off home runs go in our favor.

This is part two of our MLB Baseball betting guide, three part series. In this part we will take a look at the math behind the run line play and examine the teams from last year who were the top run line money makers. We will also begin to discuss a MLB wagering strategy that is so mind blowing and thought provoking it will leave you stunned.

The math dictates the run line wager is one of the best wagers in Baseball, but must be used only in certain situations. MLB team statistics can be found almost anywhere on the internet. Here are the top 5 teams from last year who played in the fewest one run wins while winning the most games. #1 Detroit Tigers 16 one runs wins in 2010. #2 New York Yankees 20 one run wins in 2010. #3 St. Louis Cardinals 20 one run wins in 2010. #4 Houston Astros 21 one run wins in 2010. #5 Boston Red Sox 22 one runs wins in 2010. Do not forget we are only using these teams on the run line when they are laying at least -150 or more and only when the pitching match up is entirely in our favor. If you use the run line wisely you can win 60% or more without having to lay large odds and in some cases even getting odds of +120 or more as an underdog. Remember only 12.3% of Yankees games ended with them winning by one run so don’t be afraid of taking certain large favorites on the run line to avoid those hefty odds. Veteran baseball bettors are well aware of the run line and its value; however my second strategy is so much more interesting and also controversial.

The word “fixed” is thrown around a lot when it comes to Sporting events. Usually you hear it come out of the mouth of a disgruntled gambler who was on the losing end and wants to blame someone else. We have seen over the years however both players and officials involved in their share of point shaving and fixing schemes. To say it doesn’t exist in sports is not being realistic. However there is a fine line between a game being “fixed” and knowing how a game will be called by the referees or umpire. Does the fact one umpire sees balls and strikes slightly different then the majority make him a cheater or dishonest? Of course not being behind home plate and calling balls and strikes is purely personal opinion. Does the knowledge of how a game might be called provide an advantage to a bettor? Absolutely, knowing how a game will likely be called is a huge advantage when deciding who to wager on.

If balls and strikes are personal opinion and human beings are creatures of habit it stands to reason that some MLB umpires call balls and strikes slightly differently and there could be a huge advantage if we could determine which umpires had this built in “bias” and what their tendencies were. When these numbers are tracked over many years there is a way we can determine by who the home plate umpire is what team likely will win or the likely outcome of the total. That is right I just said that we can pick MLB games correctly (over 60% of the time) by simply knowing the tendencies of the home plate umpire.

Strategy #2 – Bet on baseball according to how the home plate umpire calls the game. The umpires for each game are announced around 1 hour prior to game time of the first game in every series. Each game after that they simply rotate so it becomes very easy to know who the home plate umpire will be for the rest of the series. Sometimes finding that information for game 1’s can be difficult at best. It’s no coincidence that in the NBA this information is unavailable. Meaning no one knows which referees will be calling the game until just prior to the tip. The NBA, MLB, and even the NFL realize that they have some umpires, referees, and officiating crews who are essentially “biased”, but it is not done consciously. They aren’t calling it a certain way on purpose, they always call it that way. Call it a tendency, or a habit or just plain stubbornness but in MLB there are home plate umpires who are very transparent in how they call a game. This transparency can make you a fortune if you know where to find it and how to use it.

When I first started studying this last year I was amazed by what I found. Join me Friday here at cappersinfo.com for part 3 of this blog series on MLB betting advice and strategies where I will provide the evidence that is beyond question to prove my second strategy. This is a subject that is very controversial and potentially highly profitable. The facts might just surprise you as much as they surprised me. If you are a regular sports betting enthusiast you don’t want to miss it.

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Major League Baseball is now underway for the 2011 season, and here at Cappersinfo.com, we want you to have those most successful betting season possible.  So, we are providing a detailed wagering guide that will go into detail describing ways you can make money legally wagering on MLB baseball and become a more successful bettor overall.

This guide will be cut into a three part series where I will be offering some solid strategies and advice on how to make money this year wagering on MLB. This is part one of that series, where we will start with some of the basics.  As we reach the second and their parts, we will get a little more in-depth about the smarter ways to bet on the bases.

In this article, I will discuss several very key “secrets” to consistently winning money wagering on MLB.   I will explain in detail these strategies which are the cornerstone to making a profit wagering on Major League Baseball this year as well as for future seasons to come.

First off let me say that when it comes to handicapping any sport knowledge is power.  In this great world we live in we have tremendous access to information via the internet.  This includes statistical information that is so vital in helping to predict an outcome of a particular sporting event like Baseball.  There are a number of sports betting websites you can use to gain valuable information that gives you an edge over the general public.  These are free information sites that you do not have to belong to or pay to use.  This information is out there for everyone to be able to not only find, but utilize it to become a much more successful sports bettor as a whole.  While studying the numbers last year, I stumbled across baseball’s “dirty little secret” which I will lay out in detail as the second and main wagering strategy for Baseball.

Strategy #1 – This first piece of advice is pretty basic.  This is also something that almost any regular baseball bettor is familiar with, and that is the value in betting the “run line”.  Using the run line as an alternative to betting a large priced favorite can be a very smart way to reduce the risk.  As you may or may not know, betting the run line simply means is that you are either laying 1.5 runs (+1.5) or getting 1.5 runs (-1.5) depending on which side you select.  I do not suggest there are many situations when I would bet the run line to get 1.5 runs.  However laying 1.5 runs is a completely different story.  For example if the Yankees were -200 on the money line, on the run line at -1.5 runs you might lay just -110.  So instead of having to lay 2 to 1 on the Yankees you would have them -1.5 runs at -110 or lose $110 for every $100.

Now I will go into the math to prove why this wager is such a great value.  There are 162 games in the MLB season, and the average team plays in anywhere from the low 30’s to the high 50’s one run games.  However we are only concerned with those one run games that were wins, because those are the only situations when our run line wager would lose but the large favorite still won the game.  In fact in those one run losses we came out ahead because we didn’t have to lay 2 to 1, only -110.  So let’s take a look at the Yankees in 2010.  Their record in one run games was 20-19.  So if they played in 162 games and that yielded 20 one run wins then the Yankees had a one run win once every 8 games approximately or 12.3% of the time.

Why would you want to have to lay odds of -160 or more when you can wager on the run line and eliminate laying odds, and in many cases even be getting odds like +120 or more?  Now I suggest you do your homework and make sure you know what team you are wagering on before using this strategy.

For example; The Yankees only played in 20 one run wins last year. At the same time, if I would have chosen Minnesota I would have been much more successful (deferring from the run line), as they played in a MLB most 31 one run wins.  They win by one run 19.1% of the time, which is 64.4% higher than the Yankees.

Please join us on Wednesday for part two of thise three part blog series on the basics of wagering on MLB, where I will go into much more detail.  I will be listing the 5 teams to watch for this year for run line wagers in part two.  And, you don’t want to miss part three on Friday, as we’ll discuss a baseball picks strategy that will blow your mind.  Again, check back on Wednesday for more baseball betting strategies.