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The Kentucky Derby is always one of the hardest races of the year to handicap, but here at Cappers Info, we have all of the ins and outs covered for the horses in the field and have our Kentucky Derby picks for our trifecta covered.
The first horse that we really have our eyes on is #11 Master of Hounds.This is a colt that came out of the UAE, making him the only one that made the trip from overseas to get here. Most Americans probably won’t recognize the names of most of the horses that Master of Hounds has been bred through, but over in Europe and Asia, some of these colts and mares had amazing careers. The beauty about these horses from overseas is that they generally run a lot longer distances that the preparatory races are here in the States, and this is no exception. In the UAE Derby, Master of Hounds had no problem making it 1 3/16 miles, just shy of the distance that he’ll be running on Saturday. He was nosed in that race by Pluck, but he was a favorite in the race and will certainly be one to watch. Speed out of the gate isn’t something that we are really seeing out of Master of Hounds, but he’ll be here at the wire when it matters the most, and he has had some great speed results, especially late in races on the other side of the pond.
If the weather ends up being rough as it potentially could, the horse that is going to benefit the most is #7 Pants On Fire. With Rosie Napravnik getting the mount, this colt could be in a position to take advantage of the track conditions with some good history on a sloppy track. There have only been six other female jockeys try their hand at the Run for the Roses, and none have found their way to the winner’s circle. Napravnik took over the jockey duties for Pants On Fire at the Louisiana Derby in March, a race in which she put her colt in a great position out of the gates and held out by a neck. This is a horse with some great spirit and a fantastic pedigree with AP Indy as his grandsire. At 20 to 1 morning line odds, Pants On Fire has an absolutely fantastic price. Look for him to come out of the blocks either in the lead or right near it, and he should be able to be right near the lead at the finish line.
The horse that we think is going to end up at the finish line first though, is #17 Soldat. The only reason why this horse isn’t one of the favorites in this race is because he had an absolutely awful ride at the Florida Derby in April. This is a sneaky little horse that finds his way around traffic on a regular basis, so we’re really not all that worried about the distance. He already has three races at 1 1/8 miles under his belt, and he really could be set for another great run at 1 1/4 on Saturday. The Beyer speed ratings for this colt have been all over the place, as he has shown that he can run in the 70s and in the 100s as well. Jockey Alan Garcia could have had his pick of a few different horses for this race, but he elected to stay on this one. Soldat has a great chance to head to the winner’s circle from on the pace right away, and if there is a wire to wire winner, this is going to be the one.
The only other horse that we are afraid of in this race is the favorite on the Kentucky Derby odds, #8 Dialed In. It’s going to be hard to leave this horse out of your exotics on this race, knowing that he has never finished an worse than second. He is the favorite with Uncle Mo out of the fold by a country mile. We don’t really believe all that much in #19 Nehro, and we aren’t buying into all of the hype around #1 Archarcharch either. That being said, we’re looking to key Soldat and wrap around Dialed In, Master of Hounds, and Pants On Fire with him. Or, if you will, you could just come up with a $2 trifecta box, which could have a comfortable four digit payout.
Free Kentucky Derby Picks: #17-#7-#11-#8
