Archive for October 3rd, 2010

October 3rd, 2010 By Andrew "Mr. Multi-Task" Ryan - Cappersinfo Contributor

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The Miami Dolphins will look to avoid a second straight NFL betting defeat at home against a divisional rival when they take on the New England Patriots on MNF.

Matchup: New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Date: Monday, October 3rd, 8:30 ET
Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
Game Line: Miami +1
Over/Under 47.5

Patriots Notes: There's good news and bad news if you're HC Bill Belichick. The good news is that your offense is kicking on all cylinders right now. The Patriots are averaging 30.0 points per game this year, which is the top mark in the NFL heading into Week 4 betting action. The team is averaging a very solid 370.7 yards per game, which is seventh in the league, while the balance between rush and pass has surprisingly been fairly even, as both rank 10th in the NFL. That running game has really had a ton of different rushers this year, but the two leads have been RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and RB Fred Taylor. Green-Ellis has come out of nowhere to run for 139 yards on 31 carries. Taylor, likely a future Hall of Famer, has 98 yards on 25 runs this year. Taylor's next TD will be the 75th of his illustrious career, and he is likely to get to the 12,000 yard mark on the ground at some point this season. Of course, there's QB Tom Brady as well, who is still throwing lasers all over the field. With two rookie tight ends to play with, Brady is getting used to his new toys, and he is utilizing them well. TE Aaron Hernandez leads the team with 211 yards receiving this year, while TE Rob Gronkowski has five catches for 58 yards and two TDs. Brady's other six TD passes are split evenly between his usual targets, WR Wes Welker and WR Randy Moss. However, remember that we discussed some bad news as well… The defense for New England is conceding 27.3 points per game, which is the fourth worst mark in the league. All three foes have scored at least 24 points against the Patriots this year, something that certainly isn't going to make Belichick and his staff happy.

Dolphins Notes: All things told, HC Tony Sparano has to be pretty happy with the 2-1 start to the season for his Fins both SU and ATS. Last week's 31-23 loss to the New York Jets had to leave a bitter taste in their mouths, though. Don't be shocked to see QB Chad Henne throw the ball a little bit more in this game than perhaps you are used to. Henne has found a really rapport with WR Brandon Marshall this year, as the former Denver Bronco leads the team with 22 catches and 290 yards. He has one of the three TD passes on the year from Henne. The real bad news for Sparano's offense right now is that the unit has only come up with four total TDs. RB Ricky Williams has yet to find the end zone this season, and RB Ronnie Brown only has one score. The two backs in this system are only averaging just over 100 yards per game on the ground this year, numbers which just aren't going to cut it. The defense for Miami has been stellar though, ranking in the top half of the NFL in virtually every important category. Watch out for DE Cameron Wake, who is becoming almost as much of a sack master here in the NFL as he was when he was in the CFL playing for the BC Lions. Wake has two sacks this year, and he has had his hands in on several other quarterback pressures.

The Final Word: The Dolphins just cannot afford to drop this one and Sparano knows it. The defense for New England is too much of a sieve right now for anyone to do anything against, and when push comes to shove, the Pats just aren't going to be able to come up with the big stop at the end of the game. Too much Henne. Too much Marshall. Too much Brown. Too much Miami.

Free College Football Picks: Miami +1
Prediction: Miami 23 – New England 21

 
October 3rd, 2010 By Andrew "Mr. Multi-Task" Ryan - Cappersinfo Contributor
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Here at Cappers Info, we are taking a weekly look at the teams that could be ones ripe to pull off some major upsets! Check out the potentially ugly dogs that could come up and bite you in the butt in you aren't careful for NFL Week 4 for pro football betting action!

Underdog Pick #1: Denver Broncos (+230 at Diamond Sportsbook) @ Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1:00 ET: One look at how well the Titans played last week and how poorly the Broncos really have been all year kind of makes us look a little crazy to back the Broncos in this one, but we have an incredibly sound logic that will probably make a ton of sense. Rather than looking at numbers, we're going to just look at the sheer matchup. The Titans are definitely a run first team. With QB Vince Young running all over the place and moving the pocket, the corners, particularly DB Champ Bailey, will be able to stick around with one just one safety, and sometimes no safeties in coverage. The front seven is incredibly quick for Denver, which can help track down RB Chris Johnson when he gets in the open field on the outside. Johnson also ran the ball a whopping 32 times last week and has to be feeling some ill effects. On the other side of the ball, the Titans don't have a fantastic pass defense even though the unit ranks in the Top 10 in the league. Tennessee has played Oakland, Pittsburgh, and the Giants, only one team of which has even a remotely competent passing game. This is an entirely different challenge this week, and it is one that we think HC Josh McDaniels can exploit. This game has "NFL upset" written all over it to us.

Underdog Pick #2: Cleveland Browns (+140 at Diamond Sportsbook) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1:00 ET: The Brownies are badly looking for their first win of the season, and they are probably going to be getting some great news on Sunday. QB Jake Delhomme very well could be back under center, and he'll be leading this offense against a strong Cincinnati front seven. The Bengals are clearly the superior team in this game, but they have a history of struggling on the road. HC Eric Mangini isn't a dummy, and he knows that the key to stopping Cincinnati's offense is to make QB Carson Palmer react quickly. With an athlete like DB Joe Haden on the field, INTs can become pick sixes in a hurry. Don't be surprised if the offense finds a way to do just enough for the men in white and brown to take care of the visiting Bengals in a game which could go a long way in deciding the winner in the AFC North this year.

Underdog Pick #3: Washington Redskins (+200 at Diamond Sportsbook) @ Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 4:15 ET: You knew this was coming, right? QB Donovan McNabb would love nothing more than to come back to the City of Brotherly Love and flip the double bird at the fans that he once spoiled to death. McNabb was always hated in the Philly media, ever since he was drafted instead of RB Ricky Williams. Now, a battle tested Redskins team will try to pull the upset of a divisional rival on the road. Everyone's on the QB Michael Vick bandwagon, but we aren't so excited yet after watching him tear through the defenses of the Detroit Lions and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's watch him run around with LB Brian Orakpo chasing after him first. This is a solid, solid matchup for the visitors, and one that might very well be exploited.

Underdog Pick #4: Chicago Bears (+180 at Diamond Sportsbook) @ New York Giants, Sunday, 8:20 ET: This NFL spread is a bit of a disgrace as we're looking at it. The wrong team is clearly favored. The Titans didn't beat the G-Men last week by throwing the ball or running it. They beat them by being the more patient team and the one that capitalized on the most mistakes. The truth of the matter is that the secondary is still the weakest part of the New York defense and is the path towards knocking this team off. Enter QB Jay Cutler. Cutler has only thrown two picks this year, and though he has a miserable history of playing on SNF and MNF, it appears as though his INT problems have gone away. DE Julius Peppers should have a field day going against the Giants' relatively weak offensive line which struggled last week mightily against the Tennessee front four. Mojo is going to be catching up with the Giants here soon, and if they can't get their acts together, they're going to get their doors blown off in this NFL betting affair.

 
October 3rd, 2010 By GridironGreat

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There is no greater time to try to get into this competition than right now, as every week you beat me gives you another opportunity at that big cash prize at the end of the year. Let's get started right now with my Week 4 picks…

Denver Broncos (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans – The Broncos did a lot better job keeping up with the Colts last week than I figured they would, but they still came up on the wrong side of the number. The problem with trying to beat Denver with its ground game is that its front seven is good enough to contain RB Chris Johnson. Aside from that, the passing attack on offense is going to absolutely be strong enough to beat a defense that historically struggles against the pass. If the Denver OL can keep the Titans' front seven off of QB Kyle Orton's back, it'll make for easy NFL picks to take the Broncos +6.5.

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers are playing with house money right now, but that doesn't mean that they can take on this Baltimore team, clearly their biggest test of the year. The Ravens know that they can take control of the AFC North once again with a win, and I'm still a believer that this is one of the best teams in the NFL. Going with Baltimore +1.5.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+3) – QB Jake Delhomme might be back, and if that's the case, the Browns could prove to be stingy in this one. They were certainly worthy against my Ravens last weekend, sticking in front of the double digit spread. If RB Peyton Hillis is running for 144 yards on Baltimore, what can he do against Cincinnati? The Bengals might be meeting their match on Sunday. Brownies +3 at home for certain.

Detroit Lions (+14.5) @ Green Bay Packers – The Packers are starting to scare me. They have no running game to speak of whatsoever. Though it isn't going to make a bit of difference against Detroit's porous secondary in terms of winning the game, trying to preserve this type of a lead in the dying minutes without a running game is simply asking for a backdoor cover. I'll bet that Detroit hits the NFL spread once again by finding that backdoor. I'm all for Detroit +14.5.

Carolina Panthers (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints – Once again… I hate teams with no running games. The Panthers certainly have one, while the Saints don't. There's no way that New Orleans is losing a second straight home game, especially with a rookie quarterback making his first career start on the road. If HC John Fox wants to keep his job, he'll have his boys fired up for this one. It won't result in a victory, but QB Jimmy Clausen will show signs of improvement and the Panthers +13.5 will cash by a slim margin.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Atlanta Falcons – This is certainly a ton of underdogs that I'm playing on this week, no? C'mon, let's be real here. The 49ers can't possibly be this bad, can they? After all, this was a team that many of us thought was winning the NFC West… and it very well could still happen. Atlanta has to be full of itself after last week's 'W' in the Superdome. Not so fast, my friends. The Niners win this sucker outright. Going with San Francisco +7.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+1) – The Rams picked up their first victory last week against the 'Skins, and we tend to think that they can get back to .500 on Sunday. Seattle beat the Bolts last week thanks to a pair of RB Leon Washington kick returns for TDs. That isn't going to happen this week. Go with QB Sam Bradford and the Rams +1.

New York Jets (-5.5) @ Buffalo Bills – Remember when the Bills were losing all those Super Bowls and they were the Boy I Love Losing Super Bowls? How about this one? Boy I Love Losing Shady Lines. The Jets remember last year when Buffalo marched into the Meadowlands, picked off six passes, and ultimately won a close contest as big pups. Returning the favor this week will feel sweet as New York moves to 3-0 in division. I'm riding the Jets -5.5.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Oakland Raiders – It's probably a little early to be pushing the panic button for the Texans, but if they don't end up winning this game and winning it by a relatively comfortable margin, they're in for a nightmare in the weeks to come. You think Fox was on the hot seat in Carolina? Kubiak knows it's playoffs or bust. This could be a must win. Houston -3 for me, even if it is a square as anything play.

Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – If QB Michael Vick threw for nearly 300 yards last week against the Jags, what do you think QB Peyton Manning is going to do? Yeah, I know that Jacksonville has a history of getting up for this game every year, and yeah, I know it seems like the Jags are always dogs and are always challenging. But this year is different. This Jacksonville team is on the verge of giving up. Stick with Peyton and his Colts -8.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Diego Chargers (-9) – OL Ryan McNeill is back in camp, and that's good news for the Chargers. He won't have an impact on the field right away, but when push comes to shove, that could be a huge boost in the locker room. The Cardinals don't stand a fighting chance in this one if the Bolts don't want them to. Go with San Diego -9.

Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles – Don't get me wrong. I love what QB Michael Vick has been doing in Philly this year, but let's be real about one thing. He topped the Jags and the Lions. Whoopdie doo. There are now three weeks of tape on him to look at, and HC Mike Shanahan isn't an idiot. Don't you think that LB Brian Orakpo will be watching Vick like a hawk on Sunday? Parlay that with the fact that the 'Skins are bringing this QB Donovan McNabb guy with them… there could be fireworks, for sure. I definitely want the points and Washington +6.5 in this one.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ New York GiantsRemember to make your tiebreaker picks in this game!!! I've come to the conclusion that the Giants just aren't that good this year and the Bears really might be that good. The short passing game is going to absolutely horrify this New York defense, which just got rammed into 32 times by RB Chris Johnson last week. There's no way I can pick on a team that just had three personal fouls called… on its offensive tackles… in a game. I hate Da Bears, but I have to go with Chicago +3.5.

Official Week 4 NFL Lines Courtesy of Oddsmaker Sportsbook
Denver Broncos (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+3)
Detroit Lions (+14.5) @ Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints
San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Atlanta Falcons
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+1)
New York Jets (-5.5) @ Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans (-3) @ Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals @ San Diego Chargers (-9)
Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ New York Giants