Posts Tagged ‘March Madness picks’

March 18th, 2010 By Andrew "Mr. Multi-Task" Ryan - Cappersinfo Contributor

The battered and bruised Big East, which had a miserable first day of the NCAA Tournament, will look to right the ship on Friday night in Jacksonville, where the Louisville Cardinals (20-12) will face the California Golden Bears (23-10, 19-13 ATS).

What's At Stake: The winner of this college basketball betting battle will most likely be rewarded with a war against the Duke Blue Devils on Sunday night.

College Basketball Odds: Pick 'em at 5Dimes Sportsbook

Louisville Notes: The Cardinals crammed their way into the field of 65 by scoring two huge victories over Syracuse towards the end of the regular season. This isn't quite the same team that was a #1 seed a year ago, but there are several holdovers that have a ton of tournament experience from that squad. Louisville is averaging 76.3 points per game this year, which is good enough for 37th in the land. The defense doesn't have fantastic numbers, allowing 69.6 points per game, but if you ask any team in the Big East, they'll tell you that the Redbirds have as stout of a defense as there is in their conference.

California Notes: The Golden Bears were the only team in the Pac-10 that really deserved a slot in the NCAA Tournament all season long. Thanks to the fact that Washington won the conference, the "best" conference in the west earned a second bid to the dance. Cal loves to run up and down the court, as it is good for 78.0 points per game. It's also a very efficient team in all facets of the game, as it shoots 47.7% from the field, 37.3% from downtown, and 75.7% from the charity stripe. Averaging 11.8 turnovers per game is probably largely thanks to a very difficult schedule this year, but facing a squad that can put on a ton of pressure, that number is probably only get worse.

Players to Watch

G Edgar Sosa, Louisville Cardinals: If you're looking for a vintage boom or bust player, look no further than Sosa. The New York native is an experienced tournament star having played many games in the dance in his four years at Louisville. He's coming off of a 28 point showing against Cincinnati in the Big East Tournament. At 12.8 points per game, Sosa's numbers don't look fantastic, but he's very dangerous from the outside and can change the course of a game in a hurry.

G Jerome Randle, California Golden Bears: Randle is a fantastic scorer, and he does all of the little things right for the Golden Bears. He's averaging 18.7 points per game, and a lot of that is thanks to a 93.5% shooting percentage from the free throw line and a 40.6% shooting percentage from downtown. Randle does turn the ball over a bit much (3.3 times per game), but his 4.5 assists per game levels that out.

Trends of Note

-Louisville is 4-0 ATS in its L/4 games following an SU defeat
-Louisville is 4-1 ATS in its L/5 games against the Pac-10
-Louisville is 1-4 ATS in its L/5 NCAA Tournament showdowns
-California is 1-4 ATS in its L/5 NCAA Tournament showdowns
-California is 1-4 ATS in its  L/5 games against the Big East
-California is 4-1 ATS in its L/5 games against teams with a winning percentage of at least .600

Final Analysis: This is the second Pac-10/Big East battle of the dance after U-Dub knocked Marquette out of the first round of this tournament yesterday, and Friday's affair should be a doozy as well. However, HC Rick Pitino knows what he's doing in the dance, and he's already plotting how his team can make a major run out of a very unpredictable seeding. Look for Sosa to have a great game, while Randle and the crew get very frustrated with the pressure defense that The Ville will throw the Bears' way.

Selection: Louisville pk

 
March 17th, 2010 By Andrew "Mr. Multi-Task" Ryan - Cappersinfo Contributor

Perennial powers in the college basketball betting world will collide in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night when the #9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-10, 15-11 ATS) do battle with the #8 Texas Longhorns (24-9, 10-19 ATS).

What's At Stake: The winner of this game will most likely get a chance to take on the #1 Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday for the right to go to the Sweet 16 in March Madness. The loser's season comes to a bitter and premature ending by their standards.

College Basketball Odds: Texas -5 at JustBet Sportsbook

Wake Forest Notes: The Demon Deacons put themselves in a lot of hot water for this tournament by losing four straight games right at the end of the regular season. As a result of that and a first round elimination in the ACC Tournament, they still haven't even reached 20 wins, making them one of the few teams amongst these 64 left standing that can say that. Thanks to a high-motor offense that takes a lot of shots and a defense which forces a ton of bad shots, the Deacs are a tremendous rebounding team, averaging a whopping 39.4 per game against 34.7 for the opposition. Wake's offense is stellar at 73.0 points per game, but its defense makes it go, allowing teams to shoot just 38.3% from the floor on the year.

Texas Notes: Speaking of teams that fell a long way in a hurry… Remember when Texas was ranked #1 in the country and considered a shoe-in for a #1 seed in the dance? What happened? The Horns stumbled in Big XII play and are now subjected to a very, very difficult road to the Sweet 16. Much like Wake Forest, Texas is a tremendous rebounding team thanks to its size and length. It is averaging almost an identical number of rebounds per game as the Demon Deacons (39.5 per game), but it is +9.1 rebounds per game as compared to the +4.6 for its foes. The Longhorns have the seventh ranked offense in the nation at 81.2 points per game.

Players to Watch

Aminu Al-Farouq, Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Averaging 15.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game isn't easy over the course of a season, particularly in the ACC. But Al-Farouq not only pulled it off this year, but he expected significantly better. The big man has had four straight very poor games, averaging just 9.0 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, numbers that must improve if the Demon Deacons are getting through Round 1 of the tournament.

Damion James, Texas Longhorns: James' descent this year was also a big part of the reason for the Longhorns' decline. He never completely fell off the face of the earth like the team did though, as he has scored in double digits in all but three games this year and had 17 double-doubles. Much like Al-Farouq, James is averaging a double-double per game at 18.0 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

Trends of Note

-Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS in its L/6 games against teams with a winning percentage of at least .600
-Wake Forest is 10-1 ATS in its L/11 games as a underdog of less than seven points
-Wake Forest is just 6-24 ATS in its L/30 neutral site games
-Texas is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 games against ACC opponents
-Texas is 3-11 ATS in its L/14 games as a favorite
-Texas is 3-14 ATS in its L/17 games against teams with a winning record
-Texas is 2-0 ATS in the L/2 meetings with Wake Forest (both in 2004)

Final Analysis: This is a hefty pointspread for a game that looks like it is largely a tossup. The Longhorns get a bid of a nod for their rebounding advantage and the fact that they played so well outside of the Big XII this year, but Wake Forest has enough weapons both on the inside and the outside to keep up with Texas if the boys in burnt orange try to make this a track meet. Even if the Horns advance, Wake should stay in front of this number.

Selection: Wake Forest +5

 
March 17th, 2010 By Andrew "Mr. Multi-Task" Ryan - Cappersinfo Contributor

It's easy as pie to just come out and say that John Wall, Evan Turner, Sherron Collins, or Greg Monroe is going to be the difference maker in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. The truth of the matter is that one of those guys is probably going to be in the discussion for the MVP of the dance if their team reaches the Final Four. But here at Cappers Info, we're going to take a look at some of the players that you might not have heard of before that can botch up your brackets if you're not careful!

Omar Samhan, St. Mary's Gaels: If you're an avid hoops watcher on the West Coast, you know that Paddy Mills may not have been the heart and soul of that St. Mary's team of a year ago. Now Samhan, who averaged team highs in both scoring (20.9 points per game) and rebounding (10.9 boards per game), is the undisputed leader of this squad. He's a force in the middle and won't have an equal, let alone a superior to match up with him in the South Bracket, save perhaps Notre Dame's F Luke Harangody. Villanova had better watch out. A potential second round date with St. Mary's could be lethal.

Keith Benson, Oakland Golden Grizzlies: Here's another double-double per night guy that can do some real damage to your brackets right away if you've got the Pitt Panthers going far in the West. Benson was Oakland's leader in several categories, including points (17.0 per game), rebounds (10.5 per game), field goal percentage (53.6%), and blocks (3.4 per game). At 6'11", Benson is a legitimate center. Pitt has the bodies inside to throw at him, but Benson may ultimately be too strong for any of them to contain. The Golden Grizzlies are a potentially very dangerous #14 seed.

Jahmar Young, New Mexico State Aggies: HC Tom Izzo has to know that this guy is going to be a real offensive force in the Spartans' 5/12 game this week. Young is scoring 20.5 points per game this year, and he's coming off of a 19-point WAC Championship Game against Utah State. He's not afraid to stroke the three ball, as he's a 37.6% shooter from beyond the arc, and he's also prolific from the field (46.1%) and the free throw line (83.8%). New Mexico State already played the role of spoiler once when it took down the WAC title. With Young's help, it can do it again to one of last year's NCAA Championship Game squads.

Ryan Wittman, Cornell Big Red: Perhaps if you watched the Cornell/Kansas game earlier this year, you've heard of Wittman. The guy can shoot the rock from anywhere on the court, and he can take the ball in the post if needed as well. Wittman led the Ivy League champs in scoring at 17.5 points per game, and his 42.4% shooting from beyond the arc is a big reason why Cornell led the nation in three point shooting percentage this year. Now, the Big Red will have their toughest task at hand since that trip to Allen Fieldhouse when they have to tackle a Temple team that is #3 in the country in total defense. If Wittman can get going though, Cornell can catch some fire and blow several teams out of the East Bracket.

 
February 15th, 2010 By Andrew "Mr. Multi-Task" Ryan - Cappersinfo Contributor

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Just one week after ESPN's "Rivalry Week," the small schools take center stage in the annual "BracketBusters" festivities. Butler and Northern Iowa are both schools that are almost certainly going dancing regardless of what happens for the remainder of the season. However, for many of these teams, this weekend is their last chance to try to impress the Selection Committee in the event that they don't win their conference tournaments. Cappers Info has all you need to know about the teams that are trying to bust brackets this weekend!

Old Dominion Monarchs (20-7, 12-3 in Colonial Athletic)
Key Wins:  vs. William & Mary, vs. Charlotte, @ Georgetown
Key Losses: @ Virginia Commonwealth, @ George Mason
RPI: 33
SOS: 79

If the Monarchs don't capture the auto-bid from the CAA, they're probably in a heap of trouble. The Selection Committee realizes just how good this conference is, but it's hard to justify taking ODU without one more truly marquee win. Heading into UNI is probably the most difficult task that any team has to take on this weekend, but for Old Dominion, it is a test that it must embrace and not fear. The Monarchs already proved that they were good enough to win at Georgetown this year, and a victory against the Panthers would probably get the job done. They've won four straight and gone 3-1 ATS in their L/4 "BracketBuster" appearances, but none are more important than the one this Friday night.

Siena Saints (22-5, 15-1 in Metro Atlantic)
Key Wins: vs. Northeastern
Key Losses: @ Niagara, @ St. John's
RPI: 34
SOS: 123

The good news for the Saints is that they may be the biggest college basketball favorite on the board for a small conference tournament when they take on the rest of the MAAC in a few weeks. The bad news is that their resume, though littered with plenty of wins, doesn't really look like one of a tourney team. HC Fran McCaffery was begging for a battle with Butler or one of the other big schools this week, but he may have gotten more than he bargained for. With four returning starters from last season's Sweet 16 team, the Saints are sure to give the Bulldogs a run for their money in a game that they absolutely have to have in all likelihood to steal an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament if that's what it comes down to. Siena won last season's BracketBuster battle at home against Northern Iowa, but lost on the road against the Panthers earlier this season in the return battle.

Wichita State Shockers (21-6, 10-5 in Missouri Valley)
Key Wins: vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Texas Tech
Key Losses: @ Evansville, @ Drake, @ Creighton, @ Illinois State
RPI: 47
SOS: 120

Wichita State should be happy that it is going on the road for BracketBusters. As you can tell, there isn't a heck of a lot to this resume aside from some nice home wins. A victory at Utah State wouldn't be the most impressive thing in the world, but it would prove to the Selection Committee that the Shockers are capable of playing away from their home court. Right now, they may be the most intriguing side in the entire country, as the Valley's strong history in the dance will probably come into play come Selection Sunday. Still, WSU is going to have to play its way into the field one way or the other, and the far easier route will be a win on Saturday night against the Aggies.

Northeastern Huskies (17-9, 12-3 in Colonial Athletic)
Key Wins
: vs. Utah State, vs. Kent State, vs. Old Dominion
Key Losses: vs. Drexel, @ Western Michigan, @ Drexel, vs. Providence, @ Boston
RPI: 62
SOS: 81

One look at this resume, and you're probably thinking to yourself, "How the heck is this team on the bubble?" True, on one glance, the Huskies don't have a great gripe to be a March Madness pick next month. However, the Selection Committee has always asked the question, "What have you done for me lately?" That's where Northeastern thrives. It is 15-2 in its L/17 games, most of which have come against solid CAA foes. The Huskies can play their way into the field if they win out in the regular season and go all the way to the Colonial title game in all likelihood, but a tough test against the WAC's Louisiana Tech stands in their way. Not only does Northeastern have to be good enough to win, but it may have to be incredibly impressive on Saturday to help persuade the committee if it can't take care of business itself.